U.S.-Russia Peace Talks in Saudi Arabia: Strategic Implications and Saudi Arabia’s Mediating Role

Introdiction

As the United States and Russia prepare for high-stakes negotiations in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia emerges as an unexpected yet pivotal mediator in the Ukraine conflict.

This development marks a significant shift in global diplomacy, with the Gulf kingdom leveraging its relationships with both Washington and Moscow to position itself as a neutral arbiter.

The talks, led by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff, aim to explore pathways to end the war in Ukraine, restore U.S.-Russia relations, and potentially lay the groundwork for a summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

Below, we analyze the geopolitical dynamics, Saudi Arabia’s strategic calculus, and the challenges facing this diplomatic initiative.

Saudi Arabia’s Geopolitical Strategy as a Mediator

Neutral Ground in a Polarized Conflict

Saudi Arabia’s selection as the venue for U.S.-Russia talks reflects its deliberate positioning as a neutral intermediary.

Unlike European nations, which have largely aligned with Ukraine and imposed sanctions on Russia, Saudi Arabia has maintained diplomatic and economic ties with Moscow despite the invasion.

This neutrality is rooted in pragmatic foreign policy: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has prioritized diversifying Saudi partnerships beyond traditional Western allies, cultivating relationships with Russia on energy cooperation and China on infrastructure investments.

By hosting these talks, Riyadh seeks to solidify its role as a global power broker capable of bridging divides between adversarial states.

Historical Precedents and Recent Mediation Efforts

Saudi Arabia’s mediation credentials have grown through recent initiatives. In 2023, MBS facilitated the largest U.S.-Russia prisoner swap since the Cold War, securing the release of American detainee Marc Fogel.

Earlier, in 2022, Riyadh helped negotiate a prisoner exchange that freed ten foreign nationals captured in Ukraine.

These successes, combined with Saudi Arabia’s membership in the International Criminal Court (ICC)—which has issued an arrest warrant for Putin—make it a politically safe venue for Russian officials to engage without legal risks.

Economic and Strategic Incentives

Hosting the talks aligns with Saudi Vision 2030, MBS’s blueprint to reduce oil dependency and enhance the kingdom’s global influence.

By mediating a resolution to the Ukraine war, Riyadh aims to attract postwar reconstruction contracts and deepen economic ties with Kyiv.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia seeks to counter regional rivals like Iran and Turkey by positioning itself as the Middle East’s foremost diplomatic hub.

U.S.-Saudi Relations: Alignment and Tensions

Trump’s Personal Ties to MBS

The Trump administration’s reliance on Saudi Arabia reflects longstanding personal and political bonds.

During his first term, Trump cultivated close ties with MBS, notably through his son-in-law Jared Kushner, whose private equity firm, Affinity Partners, received a $2 billion investment from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.

This relationship has endured, with MBS becoming the first foreign leader to congratulate Trump after his 2024 inauguration.

Trust between the two leaders has facilitated backchannel negotiations, including the prisoner swaps and preliminary discussions on Ukraine.

Divergences on Regional Policy

Despite cooperation on Ukraine, U.S.-Saudi relations face strain over Middle Eastern conflicts.

The Trump administration has pressured Riyadh to increase oil production to stabilize global markets, a request Saudi Arabia has ignored.

Similarly, Saudi Arabia’s refusal to permit U.S. airstrikes on Yemen’s Houthi rebels from its territory—a policy reversal from its earlier military campaign—has frustrated Washington.

Most notably, MBS has rejected Trump’s controversial proposal to forcibly resettle Palestinians from Gaza, a plan Kushner reportedly advocated as a real estate opportunity.

These tensions underscore the transactional nature of the partnership, with both sides prioritizing immediate strategic gains over long-term alignment.

Russia’s Calculus and the Road to Riyadh

Putin’s Diplomatic Objectives

For Russia, the talks offer a chance to exit a costly war while preserving territorial gains.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov framed the discussions as a step toward “restoring the entire complex of Russian-American relations,” signaling Moscow’s desire to end its post-2022 isolation.

By engaging Trump—who has consistently expressed admiration for Putin—Russia aims to secure a favorable settlement that legitimizes its annexation of Crimea and portions of eastern Ukraine.

European Exclusion and Its Consequences

The absence of European representatives from the Riyadh talks has alarmed NATO allies.

French President Emmanuel Macron convened an emergency meeting in Paris with German, British, and other EU leaders to coordinate a response, reflecting fears that Trump’s unilateral diplomacy could undermine European security interests.

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer further complicated the landscape by pledging to deploy British troops to Ukraine as part of postwar security guarantees, a move interpreted as countering U.S.-Russia negotiations.

Ukraine’s Precarious Position

Zelenskyy’s Resistance to Bilateral Deals

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vehemently opposed any agreement negotiated without Kyiv’s participation. “I will never accept any decisions between the United States and Russia about Ukraine,” he asserted, emphasizing that territorial concessions are off the table.

Despite this stance, Zelenskyy dispatched a delegation to Saudi Arabia to explore economic partnerships, a tacit acknowledgment of Riyadh’s growing influence.

The Risk of Partition

U.S. officials have hinted that territorial compromises may be inevitable.

National Security Adviser Waltz suggested that restoring Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is unrealistic, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth indicated openness to recognizing Russian control over occupied regions. Such proposals alarm Kyiv, which views them as rewarding aggression.

However, Ukraine’s reliance on Western military aid—now uncertain under Trump—leaves it vulnerable to pressure.

Challenges and Risks for Saudi Mediation

Balancing Competing Interests

Saudi Arabia’s neutrality is tested by its simultaneous courtship of Washington and Moscow.

While MBS seeks to avoid alienating either power, his refusal to endorse Trump’s Gaza plan and Russia’s insistence on Ukrainian concessions create fault lines.

Additionally, Riyadh’s rivalry with the UAE—which has openly supported Trump’s proposals—complicates Gulf unity.

Credibility and Capacity

Despite its ambitions, Saudi Arabia lacks experience in resolving conflicts of this scale. Previous mediation efforts, such as its involvement in Yemen’s civil war, yielded mixed results.

Moreover, the kingdom’s human rights record and authoritarian governance undermine its legitimacy as a neutral arbiter in Western eyes.

Conclusion

A Pivotal Moment for Global Diplomacy

The Riyadh talks represent a watershed in post-Cold War geopolitics. For the U.S., they offer a chance to extricate itself from a protracted conflict while bolstering an ally in the Middle East.

Russia sees an opportunity to consolidate gains and fracture Western unity. Saudi Arabia aims to cement its status as a indispensable global player, bridging East-West divides.

Yet the initiative’s success hinges on addressing core contradictions

Ukraine’s sovereignty, European security concerns, and the moral hazards of rewarding aggression.

As Trump and Putin edge toward direct dialogue, the world watches to see whether Saudi Arabia’s gamble on peacemaking will redefine international diplomacy—or expose the limits of its influence.