Marco Rubio’s Diplomatic Mission to Riyadh: Navigating Gaza’s Future and US-Russia Relations in a Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

Introduction

Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Riyadh on February 17, 2025, marked a critical juncture in U.S. foreign policy, as the Trump administration sought to advance contentious plans for postwar Gaza while laying the groundwork for potential negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

The trip, part of Rubio’s inaugural Middle East tour as secretary of state, underscored the administration’s dual priorities: reshaping the Palestinian territorial framework and redefining America’s role in European security dynamics.

Amid fierce regional opposition to President Trump’s proposal to depopulate Gaza and growing European unease over unilateral U.S.-Russia negotiations, Rubio’s meetings with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian officials revealed both the limitations and opportunities of Washington’s transactional diplomacy.

Diplomatic Objectives of Rubio’s Middle East Tour

Gaza Strategy and the Trump Administration’s Vision

The centerpiece of Rubio’s agenda involved securing Saudi support for President Trump’s controversial plan to transform Gaza into a U.S.-administered territory, described by the administration as a “Riviera of the East.”

This proposal, which calls for the permanent displacement of Gaza’s 2.3 million Palestinians to neighboring countries, faced immediate rejection from Saudi Arabia and other Arab states during preliminary discussions.

The secretary of state acknowledged that while the plan remains Washington’s official position, the administration is “open to alternative proposals” from Arab governments, provided they align with core U.S. objectives: the complete eradication of Hamas as a governing or military force and the prevention of Palestinian refugee flows into Israel.

During talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Rubio emphasized the need for Arab nations to present a unified counterproposal ahead of Egypt’s scheduled February 27 summit.

Emerging details suggest potential compromises, including a Saudi-backed initiative to rebrand Egyptian reconstruction plans as the “Trump Financial Plan,” thereby preserving the administration’s branding priorities while maintaining nominal Palestinian governance structures.

However, Saudi officials reiterated their non-negotiable demand for a pathway to Palestinian statehood, directly conflicting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s public rejection of a two-state solution.

Ukraine Negotiations and the Saudi Mediation Platform

Parallel to Gaza discussions, Rubio engaged Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Yuri Ushakov in preliminary talks aimed at restarting peace negotiations on Ukraine.

These meetings, conducted without Ukrainian representation, focused on establishing confidence-building measures between Washington and Moscow, including potential security guarantees for Russia and discussions about lifting Western sanctions.

The Saudi venue provided geopolitical cover for both parties, leveraging Riyadh’s growing role as a neutral mediator and its concurrent energy partnerships with Russia and defense ties with the U.S..

National Security Advisor Mike Waltz framed the discussions as an opportunity to assess Russian sincerity about ending hostilities, noting that any final settlement would require Ukrainian participation.

However, the exclusion of Kyiv from initial talks drew sharp criticism from President Volodymyr Zelensky, who warned that agreements made without Ukraine “will yield no results”.

European leaders echoed these concerns, with French President Emmanuel Macron convening an emergency EU summit to coordinate a response to the U.S.-Russia dialogue.

Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Calculus

Vision for Postwar Gaza

Balancing Regional Leadership and Domestic Constraints

Saudi Arabia’s cautious engagement with the Trump plan reflects its dual ambitions

Asserting leadership in Arab diplomacy while managing domestic public outrage over Gaza’s humanitarian crisis.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who had previously suspended normalization talks with Israel following the October 2023 war, faces mounting pressure from a citizenry that overwhelmingly views Israel’s military campaign as genocidal.

The kingdom’s counterproposal emphasizes four pillars:

Demilitarization of Hamas

Aligning with U.S. and Israeli demands to prevent Hamas from retaining governance or military capabilities.

Territorial Continuity

Rejecting population transfers while advocating for Gaza’s reconstruction under temporary international oversight.

Financial Mechanisms

Creating a Gulf-sponsored development fund, potentially administered through the Saudi Public Investment Fund, to coordinate $15-20 billion in reconstruction aid.

Political Horizon

Linking Gaza’s recovery to renewed progress toward Palestinian statehood, albeit through gradual economic integration rather than immediate sovereignty.

This framework allows Riyadh to position itself as both a pragmatic partner to Washington and a defender of Palestinian rights, though analysts note the inherent tension between these roles.

As Middle East expert Laura Blumenfeld observed, “Saudi leadership must balance Trump’s transactional approach with the need to maintain credibility across the Arab street”.

Mediating Global Powers: Energy, Security, and Diplomatic Leverage

The simultaneous hosting of U.S. and Russian delegations underscores Saudi Arabia’s strategy of maintaining equidistance between competing blocs.

With Russia accounting for 18% of Saudi oil imports and the U.S. providing 73% of its advanced weaponry, Riyadh has emerged as a critical swing player in both Middle Eastern and European conflicts.

This balancing act was evident in Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s separate meetings with Rubio and Lavrov, where he avoided explicit endorsements of either party’s position on Ukraine while emphasizing the need for “inclusive dialogue”.

The kingdom’s mediation role extends beyond diplomacy to economic statecraft.

Saudi officials have privately floated using the petroyal currency’s growing clout to facilitate reconstruction financing in Gaza and postwar recovery in Ukraine, potentially reducing reliance on Western financial institutions.

However, such proposals remain contingent on progress in Palestinian governance reforms and Russian withdrawals from occupied Ukrainian territories.

US-Russia Discussions

Redefining European Security Architecture

The Riyadh Negotiating Framework

Tuesday’s planned talks between U.S. and Russian officials aim to establish parameters for three key issues:

Sanctions Relief

Moscow’s demand for phased removal of 63% of Western sanctions in exchange for partial troop withdrawals from Donbas.

Security Guarantees

Russian insistence on written assurances against NATO expansion into Ukraine, coupled with U.S. requests for limitations on Russian tactical nuclear deployments near NATO borders.

Energy Cooperation

Discussions about resuming Russian gas flows through Ukraine’s pipeline network, with potential revenue-sharing models to fund Kyiv’s reconstruction.

Notably, the U.S. delegation introduced a controversial proposal for European nations to compensate Ukraine through frozen Russian sovereign assets, estimated at $300 billion, rather than direct American aid.

This aligns with National Security Advisor Waltz’s stated goal of ensuring “the American people deserve payback for their investment” in the conflict.

European Reactions and Strategic Realignments

The exclusion of EU representatives from the Riyadh talks has accelerated continental efforts to develop an independent Ukraine strategy. Germany and France are reportedly drafting a “European Stability Initiative” featuring:

A €100 billion EU defense fund to bolster Ukraine’s military capabilities

Accelerated accession talks for Ukraine to join the European Union by 2030

Bilateral security pacts with Kyiv modeled on the UK-Ukraine agreement

These moves reflect deepening anxieties about U.S. disengagement from European security, exacerbated by Trump’s repeated criticism of NATO spending targets.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski captured the mood in Brussels, stating, “We cannot outsource our security to capricious allies. The Riyadh talks are a wake-up call for strategic autonomy”.

Humanitarian and Reconstruction Challenges in Gaza

The Demining and Reconstruction Quagmire

Beneath the high politics of territorial negotiations lies the staggering physical and human toll of Gaza’s destruction. Palestinian authorities estimate:

28 million tons of rubble containing unexploded ordnance

480,000 damaged or destroyed housing units requiring $18.5 billion to rebuild

85% of groundwater reserves contaminated by munitions and waste

Saudi-led reconstruction proposals envision a five-phase process:

Humanitarian Pause (0-6 Months)

Emergency aid delivery and debris clearance

Interim Governance (6-18 Months)

Arab League-appointed technocratic administration

Infrastructure Renewal (18-36 Months)

Reconstruction of housing, hospitals, and utilities

Economic Revitalization (36-60 Months)

Special economic zones and digital infrastructure development

Political Transition (60+ Months): Elections supervised by Arab and international observers

However, these plans remain theoretical without binding commitments from Israel on lifting its blockade or from Hamas on disarming.

The Hostage-Prisoner Exchange Dynamic

Ongoing negotiations between Israel and Hamas, facilitated by Qatari and Egyptian mediators, have created a fragile ceasefire framework.

The February 17 exchange of three Israeli hostages for 300 Palestinian detainees marked the seventh such swap since January, with remaining sticking points including:

Hamas’ demand for the release of 800 prisoners convicted of lethal attacks

Israel’s insistence on retrieving the bodies of 120 deceased hostages

Disputes over the ratio of prisoners to hostages in final-stage negotiations

Rubio’s visit coincided with heightened urgency, as the current ceasefire agreement expires on March 3. U.S. officials have pressed Israel to extend the truce despite Netanyahu’s threats to resume military operations if Hamas retains governing authority.

Path Forward: Converging and Diverging Interests

The Normalization-Sovereignty Dilemma

Saudi Arabia’s willingness to entertain limited security cooperation with Israel—including intelligence sharing on Iranian activities and joint Red Sea patrols—remains contingent on tangible progress toward Palestinian self-determination.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has proposed a “normalization for sovereignty” formula where incremental Israeli concessions in Gaza and the West Bank would be matched by phased Saudi recognition.

This could involve

Israeli approval for Palestinian Authority administrative control in northern Gaza

Saudi investment in joint Israeli-Palestinian industrial zones

U.S. security guarantees for Saudi Arabia against Iranian aggression

Such an approach faces skepticism from both Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition and Palestinian factions distrustful of Saudi leadership.

Great Power Competition in the Mediterranean

The convergence of Gaza and Ukraine diplomacy in Riyadh highlights the Trump administration’s strategy of linking disparate regional conflicts into a unified negotiation framework.

By positioning Saudi Arabia as a mediator, Washington aims to

Reduce China’s growing influence in Middle Eastern infrastructure projects

Counter Russian energy dominance in Europe through expanded U.S.-Gulf hydrocarbon partnerships

Create economic dependencies that deter Arab states from deepening ties with Moscow or Beijing

Early indicators suggest mixed success. While Saudi Arabia has tempered its engagement with China’s Belt and Road Initiative, it continues negotiating a bilateral security pact with Beijing that could complicate U.S. basing rights in the region.

Conclusion

The Riyadh Talks as Diplomatic Inflection Point

Secretary Rubio’s mission to Saudi Arabia epitomizes the Trump administration’s unorthodox foreign policy playbook—combining maximalist territorial ambitions with transactional partnership models.

While the visit achieved short-term objectives in restarting U.S.-Russia dialogue and soliciting Arab alternatives for Gaza, it also exposed fundamental tensions between unilateralism and coalition-building.

The coming weeks will test whether Riyadh’s mediation can produce actionable compromises or merely paper over divergent interests.

With the Gaza ceasefire clock ticking and Ukraine’s military position eroding, the administration faces mounting pressure to convert diplomatic theater into substantive agreements.

As the Middle East and Eastern Europe brace for potential paradigm shifts, the enduring lesson from Rubio’s tour may be that even superpowers cannot dictate terms without accommodating the complex realities of local actors and globalized crises.