U.S.-Russia Diplomatic Engagement in Riyadh: Outcomes, Next Steps, and Implications for Ukraine and the European Union

Introduction

Senior U.S. and Russian officials concluded a landmark meeting in Riyadh on February 18, 2025, marking the most significant bilateral dialogue since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The discussions, held without Ukrainian participation, aimed to address the Ukraine conflict and broader U.S.-Russia relations.

This article analyzes the key outcomes, outlines the agreed next steps, and evaluates the implications for Ukraine and the European Union (EU).

Key Outcomes of the Riyadh Meeting

Normalization of Diplomatic Relations

The U.S. and Russia agreed to restore staffing at their respective embassies in Washington and Moscow, which had been severely reduced due to reciprocal expulsions and sanctions since 2014.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that functional diplomatic missions are critical for maintaining dialogue channels, particularly for future negotiations on Ukraine.

This move signals a deliberate shift from the Biden administration’s policy of isolating Russia, reflecting President Trump’s prioritization of bilateral engagement.

Framework for Ukraine Peace Negotiations

Both nations committed to forming high-level expert teams to outline parameters for ending the war.

While the exact composition of these teams remains undefined, U.S. officials stressed that their focus would include territorial adjustments and security guarantees—topics Kyiv has historically resisted.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine, demanding that the alliance formally revoke its 2008 pledge to admit Kyiv.

Exploration of Post-Conflict Economic Cooperation

The delegations discussed potential economic collaboration, particularly in energy and Arctic development, once the war concludes.

Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, highlighted joint energy projects as a priority, suggesting U.S. oil firms could re-enter the Russian market.

This aligns with the Trump administration’s emphasis on leveraging economic incentives to secure concessions from Moscow.

Preparation for a Trump-Putin Summit

Although no date was finalized, both sides acknowledged the need for a future meeting between President Trump and Vladimir Putin to solidify agreements. Kremlin adviser Yuri Ushakov described the Riyadh talks as a precursor to such a summit, contingent on progress in working-level negotiations.

Next Steps in the Diplomatic Process

Diplomatic Mission Restoration

The U.S. and Russia will begin re-staffing embassies, a process expected to take months due to logistical and security complexities. This step is seen as foundational for sustaining communication channels.

Formation of Negotiation Teams

Teams led by senior officials will convene to address

Territorial disputes

Potential compromises on Russian-occupied regions like Donbas and Crimea.

Security guarantees

Russian demands for NATO non-expansion and Ukrainian neutrality.

Sanctions relief

The U.S. and EU may ease restrictions contingent on Russian concessions.

Consultation with Ukraine and the EU

While the initial talks excluded Kyiv and European partners, U.S. officials pledged to involve them in subsequent phases. Secretary Rubio noted that EU sanctions policy necessitates their inclusion.

However, no timeline or mechanism for this engagement was specified.

Economic Working Groups

Parallel discussions will explore sectors for U.S.-Russia collaboration, including energy, technology, and space exploration. These talks aim to create mutual incentives for de-escalation.

Implications for Ukraine

Exclusion from Initial Negotiations

Ukraine’s absence from the Riyadh talks sparked fierce criticism from President Volodymyr Zelensky, who declared that Kyiv “will not recognize any agreements made without us”.

This sentiment reflects broader anxieties that the U.S. might pressure Ukraine into accepting unfavorable terms, such as territorial concessions or neutrality.

The lack of transparency has strained U.S.-Ukraine relations, with Zelensky postponing a planned visit to Saudi Arabia to avoid legitimizing the process.

Security Concerns

Russia’s hardening demands—particularly its insistence on NATO disavowing Ukraine’s membership—threaten Kyiv’s strategic interests.

Ukrainian officials view NATO accession as vital for deterring future aggression, making this a non-negotiable issue.

Any U.S. acquiescence to Moscow’s demands could undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and embolden Russian revanchism.

Military and Financial Pressures

With U.S. attention shifting toward diplomacy, Ukraine faces challenges in sustaining Western military aid. The EU has pledged to “scale up defense production” to support Kyiv, but fragmented coordination risks weakening frontline resistance.

Implications for the European Union

Anxiety Over U.S. Unilateralism

The EU reacted warily to its exclusion from the Riyadh talks, with France convening an emergency meeting to assert Europe’s role in any peace process.

European leaders fear that U.S.-Russia bilateralism could marginalize the EU’s influence and lead to a settlement that neglects European security interests.

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur encapsulated this concern, stating, “There will be no peace in Ukraine without Ukraine or Europe”.

Divergence on Sanctions Policy

The EU’s extensive sanctions regime against Russia complicates U.S. efforts to broker a deal.

While the Trump administration has hinted at flexibility, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reiterated that sanctions relief must be contingent on Russian compliance with international law. Reconciling these positions will test transatlantic unity.

Strategic Autonomy Debates

The Riyadh talks have reignited calls for greater EU defense autonomy. French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the need for “credible security guarantees” independent of U.S. diplomacy, reflecting broader European apprehensions about over-reliance on Washington.

Conclusion

A Fragile Path Forward

The Riyadh meeting represents a pivotal but precarious shift in U.S.-Russia relations.

While the agreement to restore diplomatic ties and initiate peace talks offers a glimmer of hope, the exclusion of Ukraine and the EU risks exacerbating tensions and undermining the legitimacy of any eventual settlement.

The next steps—particularly the formation of negotiation teams and the involvement of European and Ukrainian stakeholders—will determine whether this process leads to sustainable peace or further fragmentation.

For Ukraine, the stakes could not be higher

Its territorial integrity, security, and future hinge on a diplomatic process from which it remains sidelined.

Meanwhile, the EU faces a dilemma between supporting U.S. diplomacy and asserting its strategic interests in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.