Turkey in post-Assad Syria: Balancing PKK, Jihadist threats & opportunities

Introduction

Turkey’s role in post-Assad Syria has become increasingly pivotal, presenting both significant opportunities and complex challenges for Ankara. The unexpected fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has reshaped the regional political landscape, positioning Turkey as a key player in determining Syria’s future.

Turkey’s Objectives in Syria

Turkey’s primary goals in post-Assad Syria include:

Dismantling Kurdish Forces

Turkey’s foremost objective is to eliminate the People’s Defense Units (YPG), which it views as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Ankara considers this a critical national security issue and expects its allies, particularly the United States, to reassess their support for Kurdish forces.

Refugee Management

Turkey aims to create conditions for the return of over 3 million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey.

Regional Influence

Ankara seeks to leverage its position to gain an advantage over Iran and Russia in the region.

Turkey’s Approach and Challenges

Relationship with Armed Groups

Turkey’s complex relationships with various armed factions in Syria are central to its strategy:

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)

Turkey has been working to moderate HTS’s jihadist roots and encourage them to form an inclusive government. However, this relationship is delicate and could potentially backfire if HTS consolidates power independently.

Syrian National Army (SNA)

Turkey backs the SNA, which played a key role in fighting Assad’s forces and aligns with Ankara’s goal of preventing Kurdish autonomy.

Diplomatic and Military Engagement

Turkey has quickly reestablished its diplomatic presence in Damascus and is actively engaging with new Syrian leadership. Turkish officials have offered military assistance and training to the new administration, emphasizing their desire for a stable and unified Syria.

Regional and International Implications

Changing Power Dynamics

Turkey’s influence in Syria is growing at the expense of Russia and Iran, potentially allowing Ankara to become more assertive in its regional relationships.

International Perceptions

Turkey’s increased role in Syria has triggered mixed reactions. While some view it as an opportunity for stability, others, particularly Arab nations, are wary of Turkey’s expanding influence.

Kurdish Issue

Turkey’s actions against Kurdish forces in Syria, such as the ongoing operation in Manbij, demonstrate its determination to address what it perceives as Kurdish terrorism.

Challenges and Risks

Balancing Relationships

Turkey must carefully manage its relationships with various armed groups, particularly HTS, to avoid being seen as complicit in potential governance failures.

International Scrutiny

Turkey’s actions and rhetoric will be closely watched by regional and global powers, requiring careful diplomacy to avoid creating anti-Turkish sentiments.

Long-term Stability

While Turkey sees opportunities for advancing its interests, ensuring long-term stability in Syria remains a complex challenge.

Conclusion

Turkey’s role in post-Assad Syria is multifaceted, balancing security concerns, particularly regarding Kurdish forces, with opportunities for regional influence. However, Ankara must navigate carefully to avoid potential pitfalls and maintain stability in this volatile situation.

All political and war analyst understand this is not about risk from Kurds or ISIS.

Turkey has been eyeing their intent on Kurdish area being almost 65 % of current Syria.

On other hand Israel is doing the same more tactfully the same occupying the buffer zone.