What is Turkey strategic decision to promote HTS

Introduction

Turkey’s involvement in promoting Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) appears to be driven by several strategic objectives.

Buffer against Kurdish influence:

Turkey uses HTS and other Syrian rebel groups to counter the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, which it sees as linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).

Territorial control:

HTS helps maintain Turkey’s influence over areas in northern Syria, particularly in Idlib province.

Proxy force:

Turkey leverages HTS as a proxy to exert influence in Syria while minimizing direct military involvement and associated risks.

Border security:

By supporting HTS, Turkey aims to secure its border against potential threats and manage the flow of refugees.

Regional power projection:

Turkey’s relationship with HTS allows it to assert its presence and influence in the Syrian conflict.

Counterbalance to Assad regime:

HTS serves as a counterweight to the Syrian government forces, aligning with Turkey’s opposition to the Assad regime.

Conclusion

However, Turkey’s relationship with HTS is complex. While Turkey has designated HTS as a terrorist organization, it appears to tolerate the group’s presence in Idlib in exchange for HTS acting as a security force and maintaining stability in the region.