How has Turkey's influence in Syria changed since the fall of the Assad regime

Introduction

Turkey’s influence in Syria has significantly increased following the fall of the Assad regime, positioning Ankara as a dominant force in shaping Syria’s future. This shift in power dynamics has several key implications:

Expanded Control and Influence

Turkey’s role in Syria has grown substantially:

Turkey effectively controls parts of northern Syria through its allied militias in the Syrian National Army (SNA) and direct military presence.

The rapid advance of opposition forces, including Turkey-backed militias, has strengthened Ankara’s position in the region.

Turkey’s leverage over anti-Assad and anti-Kurdish Sunni Muslim militant groups has become more apparent.

Strategic Objectives

Turkey’s increased influence allows it to pursue several key objectives:

Preventing a new northward flow of refugees.

Curbing the presence and control of Kurdish forces linked to the PKK.

Facilitating reconciliation among various Syrian armed opposition groups.

Assisting in the establishment of an interim government representing all political factions.

Diplomatic and Political Leverage

Turkey’s position as a key player in Syria’s future has been reinforced:

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan stated that Turkey is ready to “undertake whatever responsibility is necessary” to ensure Syria’s unity, integrity, and security.

Ankara is likely to push for a friendly client government in Damascus that will rely on Turkey for trade, reconstruction, and diplomatic support.

Regional Balance of Power

The fall of Assad has altered the regional dynamics in Turkey’s favor:

Turkey’s influence has grown at the expense of Iran and Russia, Assad’s main backers.

Ankara may use this opportunity to demonstrate its ability to counteract Iranian influence in the Middle East to the incoming U.S. administration.

Challenges and Responsibilities

With increased influence comes new challenges for Turkey:

Turkey needs to help re-establish public order and support a transitional government.

Ankara must navigate the complex task of securing the return of Syrian refugees.

Managing relations with other regional powers and the international community will be crucial.

Growing risk to Syrian Kurds backed by US

The population of Syrian Kurds is estimated to be between 1.6 million and 2.5 million, making up approximately 5% to 10% of Syria’s total population.

Yes, Kurdish Syrians backed by the US are facing significant risks from Turkey’s growing influence in Syria following the fall of the Assad regime. This situation has created a complex and precarious environment for Kurdish forces, particularly the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which have been key US allies in the fight against ISIS.

Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) has captured key areas, including the town of Manbij, previously held by the SDF.

Turkey continues to view Kurdish groups like the People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the Democratic Union Party (PYD) as extensions of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which it considers a terrorist organization.

Risks to Kurdish Autonomy

The Kurdish dream of self-rule is under threat:

Turkish-backed forces have pushed into areas previously controlled by Kurdish groups, potentially shrinking Kurdish-held territory.

There are concerns about the displacement and persecution of Kurdish civilians in areas taken by Turkish-backed groups.

US Support and Dilemmas

The US finds itself in a challenging position:

Approximately 900 US troops remain in northeastern Syria, supporting the SDF against ISIS.

The US is trying to balance its support for Kurdish allies with its relationship with NATO ally Turkey.

There are calls from some US officials, like Senator Lindsey Graham, to protect Kurdish forces from Turkish threats.

Potential Consequences

The situation poses several risks:

Clashes between Turkish-backed forces and the SDF could destabilize the region and potentially allow for a resurgence of ISIS.

The SDF may be forced to seek new alliances or compromises to protect itself, potentially weakening its position.

There’s a risk of increased ethnic tensions and potential displacement of Kurdish populations.

Kurdish Syrians backed by the US are indeed facing significant risks from Turkey’s increased influence in Syria. The situation remains fluid, with potential for further conflict and geopolitical realignment in the region.

Conclusion

Turkey’s influence in Syria has dramatically increased since the fall of the Assad regime. Ankara now finds itself in a position to significantly shape Syria’s political future, manage refugee issues, and potentially reshape the regional balance of power. However, this increased influence also brings new responsibilities and challenges that Turkey must carefully navigate.