How does Russia benefit if Bidzina Ivanishvili wins recount ?
Ivanishvili’s influence and his party’s (Georgian Dream) continued control in Georgia. Here’s how Russia stands to gain:
Geopolitical Alignment
Russia benefits from Ivanishvili’s leadership and Georgian Dream’s control in several ways:
1. Shift away from the West: Ivanishvili’s governance has been steering Georgia away from its Euro-Atlantic aspirations and closer to Russia’s sphere of influence.
2. Weakening of pro-Western sentiment: Despite polls showing strong public support for EU and NATO membership, Ivanishvili’s party has been accused of hiding a pro-Russian stance behind a pro-Western facade.
3. Implementation of Russia-friendly policies: The controversial “foreign influence” bill, believed to be masterminded by Ivanishvili, mirrors similar laws used in Russia to suppress opposition and civil society.
Political Control and Influence
Russia’s long-term strategy in Georgia involves:
1. Regime building: Since 2012, when Ivanishvili came to power, Russia has been working on transforming Georgia’s political system to align more closely with Moscow’s interests.
2. Maintaining a façade of democracy: Ivanishvili has managed to maintain the appearance of an electoral democracy while effectively removing the electorate’s ability to change leadership.
3. Exploiting internal divisions: The Georgian Dream party has portrayed opposition victories as a path to war with Russia, playing on fears within the Georgian population.
Regional Strategy
Russia’s influence in Georgia serves broader strategic goals:
1. Caucasus control: Maintaining influence in Georgia helps Russia preserve its traditional dominance in the southern Caucasus region.
2. Demonstrating influence: Success in Georgia allows Russia to showcase its ability to maintain control in former Soviet states, potentially influencing other countries in the region.
3. Testing ground for strategies: The approach in Georgia may serve as a model for Russian influence in other countries, including potentially in a post-war Ukraine scenario.
In conclusion, while there is no specific recount mentioned, Russia benefits significantly from Ivanishvili and Georgian Dream’s continued control in Georgia, as it allows Moscow to maintain and potentially expand its influence in the region while weakening Western ties.
