Will HTS offensive be opening for Erdogan to offer US-Turkey reset on Syria, Russia?

The recent HTS-led offensive in northern Syria could indeed provide an opportunity for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to propose a reset in US-Turkey relations regarding Syria and Russia, particularly with Donald Trump’s return to the presidency. Several factors contribute to this potential diplomatic opening:

Shifting Dynamics in Syria

The HTS offensive has exposed weaknesses in the Syrian government’s defenses, largely due to Russia’s reduced military presence in the region. This situation creates an opportunity for Turkey to reassert its influence and potentially leverage it in negotiations with both the US and Russia.

Turkey’s Strategic Positioning

While Turkey maintains official neutrality regarding the HTS offensive, it appears to be indirectly supporting the operation. This calculated approach allows Ankara to:

1. Pressure the Syrian government without openly endorsing groups classified as terrorist organizations

2. Strengthen its negotiating position with Damascus and Moscow

3. Demonstrate its continued influence in northwest Syria

Potential for US-Turkey Cooperation

With Trump’s return to the presidency, Erdogan sees an opportunity to repair strained ties with the US. Several factors could facilitate this reset:

1. Personal Rapport: Erdogan and Trump have a history of direct communication, with Erdogan emphasizing the effectiveness of “phone diplomacy”.

2. Shared Interests: Both leaders may find common ground on issues such as ending conflicts in the Middle East and restraining Iran’s regional activities.

3. Potential Policy Shifts: Trump’s foreign policy approach may prioritize stability and diplomatic deals, which could align with Turkey’s regional interests.

Challenges and Opportunities

While the potential for improved US-Turkey relations exists, several challenges remain:

1. Conflicting Interests: Turkey’s relationships with Russia and Iran may complicate full alignment with US objectives in the region.

2. Policy Uncertainties: The composition of Trump’s foreign policy team could significantly impact the direction of US-Turkey relations.

Despite these challenges, the current situation in Syria, combined with the change in US leadership, presents a unique opportunity for Erdogan to propose a reset in relations. By leveraging Turkey’s influence in Syria and appealing to Trump’s desire for diplomatic deals and regional stability, Erdogan could potentially negotiate a new understanding on Syria that better aligns with Turkish interests while addressing US concerns about Russian and Iranian influence in the region.