Turkey’s Political Trajectory: Analyzing Stability, Opposition Challenges, and Erdogan’s Future

Introduction

Turkey faces a precarious political moment as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan confronts mounting challenges to his two-decade rule.

The recent detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu—widely considered Erdogan’s most formidable political rival—has triggered nationwide protests, economic turbulence, and international concern.

FAF examines Turkey’s current political landscape, assessing prospects for stability, potential for unrest, and the sustainability of Erdogan’s regime amid economic struggles and growing opposition strength.

The Current Political Crisis

Turkey has entered a new phase of political instability following the March 2025 detention of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, along with over 100 others, on charges of corruption and terrorism-related offenses.

This move has been widely interpreted as politically motivated, designed to neutralize a significant electoral threat to Erdogan’s leadership.

The arrest triggered immediate protests across significant cities despite government bans on public gatherings.

“He has crossed the Rubicon,” remarked Suat Kiniklioglu, a former MP, suggesting that Erdogan’s actions represent a critical turning point in Turkey’s political trajectory.

The crackdown signals an escalation in authoritarian measures that may have lasting consequences for the country’s democratic institutions.

The timing of Imamoglu’s detention appears strategic. As a popular two-term mayor who has twice defeated Erdogan’s candidates in Istanbul, Imamoglu was expected to be nominated as the presidential candidate for the Republican People’s Party (CHP) before his arrest.

Experts suggest this represents a calculated attempt by Erdogan to eliminate his strongest challenger ahead of potential future elections.

Protest Movement and Government Response

In response to Imamoglu’s detention, citizens have taken to the streets across Turkey despite a four-day prohibition on demonstrations.

Security forces have deployed tear gas and rubber projectiles against protesters, particularly in Istanbul.

The government has further restricted communication by limiting access to social media platforms and arresting individuals for allegedly “provocative” online content.

While the protests represent a significant display of public dissatisfaction, their relatively modest scale—compared to Istanbul’s population of over 16 million—suggests they may not yet pose an existential threat to Erdogan’s authority.

Nevertheless, they demonstrate a growing willingness among population segments to challenge the government’s actions openly.

Erdogan’s Political Challenges and Strategies

Electoral Setbacks

Erdogan’s political dominance has faced unprecedented challenges in recent years. The March 2024 local elections delivered a stunning setback to his Justice and Development Party (AKP), which lost control of Turkey’s five largest cities: Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Bursa, and Antalya.

This electoral defeat marked the first time in over 40 years that the opposition CHP emerged as Turkey’s leading party.

The election results reflect growing disillusionment with Erdogan’s leadership, particularly regarding economic management.

Following the defeat, Erdogan reportedly told party executives that the “results demonstrate not only a defeat in the election but also the loss of the party’s soul,” citing “disease-like” arrogance among party representatives.

Constitutional Maneuvering

Erdogan faces a significant constitutional obstacle to extending his rule beyond 2028, as presidents are limited to two terms under the current constitution. However, evidence suggests he is actively exploring strategies to circumvent this limitation.

One approach involves rewriting the constitution—a tactic Erdogan successfully employed in 2017 when he transformed Turkey from a parliamentary system into a presidential republic.

However, this would require support from opposition parties, as his alliance lacks the necessary parliamentary majority for such changes.

Alternatively, if successful, Erdogan could pursue early elections, allowing him to serve at least another five years. However, this strategy would also require outmaneuvering the opposition, particularly potential challengers like Imamoglu, whose popularity significantly threatens Erdogan’s prospects.

Economic Factors Influencing Stability

Turkey’s economic difficulties represent perhaps the most significant vulnerability for Erdogan’s regime and a potential catalyst for broader instability.

Inflation and Living Standards

According to official statistics, the country has experienced persistently high inflation, which reached nearly 70% in February 2024, though unofficial estimates suggest rates closer to 122%.

While inflation moderated somewhat to 47.1% by November 2024, it eroded ordinary Turks' living standards.

The economic crisis has particularly affected pensioners and fixed-income citizens. With monthly pension payments equivalent to just $312—insufficient to cover basic expenses in Istanbul—many older adults have been reduced to scavenging food from trash bins.

This visible decline in living standards has fueled discontent with Erdogan’s economic management.

Currency Instability and Investment Decline

Imamoglu’s arrest triggered immediate economic consequences, with Turkish markets experiencing the steepest decline globally and the lira plummeting to an all-time low against the dollar.

The central bank reportedly intervened by selling approximately $10 billion in foreign currency to stabilize the faltering currency, which has depreciated by 15% against the dollar in the past year and 83% over the last five years.

Turkey has also struggled to attract foreign investment under Erdogan’s economic policies. Foreign direct investment has declined significantly from its 2007 peak of $22 billion to approximately $10.6 billion in 2023—less than 1% of GDP compared to 3% in 2007.

This investment drought limits economic growth potential and complicates efforts to address structural economic challenges.

Historical Context

The 2016 Coup Attempt and Its Legacy

Any assessment of Turkey’s potential for civil unrest or another coup must consider the failed coup attempt of July 15, 2016, when a faction within the Turkish Armed Forces attempted to overthrow Erdogan’s government.

Factors Behind the Failed Coup

Several factors contributed to the coup’s failure, including

Chaos among the plotters, who were forced to execute the coup five hours ahead of schedule after their plans were discovered by Turkish intelligence

Lack of coordination and resources among the rebels, who acted outside the military chain of command

Strong opposition from high-ranking military officers who remained loyal to the government

Widespread civilian resistance, encouraged by government text messages and mosque announcements calling people to protest against the coup

Possible foreign intelligence assistance, with unconfirmed reports suggesting Russia warned Turkey of the imminent coup

Post-Coup Consolidation of Power

The aftermath of the failed coup significantly allowed Erdogan to consolidate power through widespread purges.

At least 40,000 people were detained immediately following the coup, including 10,000 soldiers and 2,745 judges.

Eventually, more than 77,000 people were arrested, and over 160,000 were fired from their jobs on allegations of connections to Fethullah Gülen, whom the government accused of orchestrating the coup.

This pattern of using real or perceived threats to justify crackdowns on opposition has become a recurring feature of Erdogan’s governance approach.

The current detention of Imamoglu and others appears to follow a similar playbook, leveraging accusations of terrorism and corruption to neutralize political threats.

Scenarios for Turkey’s Future

Based on current trends and historical patterns, several potential scenarios emerge for Turkey’s political trajectory:

Scenario 1

Continued Authoritarian Consolidation

The most likely near-term scenario involves Erdogan continuing to intensify authoritarian measures to neutralize opposition threats and extend his rule. According to an analysis from January 2025, “Ankara is likely to intensify efforts to divide, co-opt and suppress dissent at home” during 2025. The arrest of Imamoglu appears to confirm this prediction.

Under this scenario, Erdogan would likely pursue constitutional changes or early elections while maintaining tight control over state institutions, media, and civil society. This approach may succeed in extending his rule but would likely exacerbate societal polarization and economic difficulties.

Scenario 2

Growing Resistance and Potential Instability

A second scenario involves escalating resistance to Erdogan’s rule, particularly if economic conditions deteriorate. While current protests remain relatively contained, worsening living standards and increasingly brazen authoritarian measures could eventually trigger more widespread civil unrest.

The opposition CHP has shown increased willingness to confront Erdogan’s actions directly.

For instance, when the government removed a pro-Kurdish mayor in Van in early 2024, CHP leaders, including Imamoglu, called the act a “coup” and mobilized supporters in solidarity. This suggests growing opposition confidence and coordinated resistance strategies.

Scenario 3

Military Intervention

A traditional military coup appears less likely than in previous eras of Turkish history, given Erdogan’s extensive purges of the armed forces following the 2016 attempt and his efforts to place loyalists in key positions.

However, Turkey’s history of military interventions in politics means this possibility cannot be entirely discounted, particularly if economic or political crises deepen significantly.

The failed 2016 coup provides essential lessons about the challenges of successfully executing such an intervention in contemporary Turkey. Any such attempt would face formidable obstacles without broad support within the military hierarchy and significant public backing.

Conclusion

Turkey stands at a critical juncture, with multiple factors suggesting continued political instability in the coming years.

Erdogan faces unprecedented challenges to his rule, including electoral setbacks, economic difficulties, constitutional term limits, and growing opposition strength. His response—intensifying authoritarian measures to neutralize threats—may successfully extend his rule in the short term but risks exacerbating underlying tensions.

While an immediate coup or civil war appears unlikely, given the current level of opposition fragmentation and the government’s tight control over security forces, political instability and the risk of civil unrest remain significant.

Economic difficulties, particularly persistent inflation and declining living standards, are probable catalysts for broader unrest if conditions deteriorate.

Erdogan’s political survival depends on his ability to address these economic challenges, manage growing opposition strength, and navigate constitutional limitations on his rule.

His track record suggests he will pursue increasingly authoritarian measures to maintain power, potentially at the cost of further eroding Turkey’s democratic institutions and deepening societal divisions.