Opposition Strategies Against Erdogan: Coalition Building, Protests, and Electoral Challenges

Introduction

Turkey’s opposition parties, led primarily by the Republican People’s Party (CHP), have adopted multifaceted strategies to counter President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s prolonged authoritarian rule.

These efforts include forming broad alliances, leveraging municipal governance successes, organizing mass protests, and preparing for electoral contests through charismatic leadership.

However, internal divisions, legal crackdowns, and Erdogan’s institutional dominance complicate these efforts.

Coalition-Building and Internal Fractures

The “Table of Six” Alliance

The CHP spearheads a six-party opposition coalition (“Table of Six”) to restore parliamentary democracy and limit Erdogan’s executive powers.

This alliance includes the nationalist Good Party (IYI), Felicity Party, Democrat Party, Democracy and Progress Party, and Future Party. Their 2,300-point program seeks to reintroduce checks on presidential authority, ensure judicial independence, and address economic crises.

However, the coalition’s unity is fragile. In 2023, the IYI Party temporarily withdrew over disagreements about nominating CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as the presidential candidate, favoring Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu instead. This rift underscores the challenge of reconciling divergent ideologies within the opposition bloc.

Kurdish Alliance Risks

The CHP has cautiously aligned with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which faces persistent legal threats, including a closure case initiated by Erdogan’s government.

While the HDP’s support is critical for securing Kurdish votes—10% of the electorate—the CHP risks being labeled as “terrorist sympathizers” by Erdogan, who accuses the HDP of ties to the PKK.

Despite this, CHP leaders like Özgür Özel have defended Kurdish rights, arguing that Erdogan’s simultaneous dialogue with the PKK reveals hypocrisy.

Municipal Governance as a Counter-Narrative

Showcasing Administrative Competence

The CHP’s control of major cities—Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, and Antalya—has become a cornerstone of its strategy. Mayors Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş have used their platforms to contrast transparent governance with Erdogan’s alleged corruption.

For instance, İmamoğlu’s infrastructure projects and welfare programs in Istanbul have boosted his popularity, positioning him as Erdogan’s most formidable rival.

However, Erdogan has retaliated by withholding municipal funds and launching judicial probes, such as revoking İmamoğlu’s academic degree to disqualify him from future elections.

Mass Protests and Civil Resistance

Nationwide Demonstrations

The arrest of İmamoğlu in March 2025 sparked Turkey’s largest protests since the 2013 Gezi Park movement, with over 300,000 rallying in Istanbul alone.

The CHP mobilized citizens across 40 provinces, deploying slogans like “Don’t stay silent, or it will be your turn!” to frame the protests as a defense of democracy. Despite police crackdowns involving tear gas and arrests, these demonstrations signal growing public defiance.

However, their limited scale relative to Istanbul’s population suggests Erdogan retains significant control.

Historical Parallels and Limitations

The opposition draws inspiration from past movements, such as the 2016 protests against HDP arrests. Yet, Erdogan’s post-2016 purges have weakened organized dissent. The 2025 protests, while spirited, lack the structural support of unions or civil society networks that sustained earlier uprisings.

Electoral Strategies and Leadership Challenges

Charismatic Leadership vs. Erdogan’s Tactics

The CHP has shifted from Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s technocratic approach to championing populist figures like İmamoğlu and Yavaş, who poll higher than Erdogan.

However, Erdogan’s legal maneuvers—such as detaining İmamoğlu on corruption charges—aim to eliminate rivals before the 2028 elections. The CHP’s internal primary for the 2028 presidential race, scheduled for March 2025, underscores its focus on candidate viability.

Constitutional Hurdles

Erdogan faces term limits in 2028 but may pursue constitutional amendments or early elections to extend his rule. The opposition’s ability to block such changes depends on maintaining parliamentary cohesion, a challenge given the AKP’s dominance in rural areas.

International Advocacy and Legal Battles

Leveraging Global Pressure

Human rights organizations and the EU have condemned Erdogan’s judicial persecution of the HDP and CHP. The CHP highlights these criticisms to undermine Erdogan’s legitimacy, particularly as Turkey seeks EU membership. However, Erdogan dismisses such appeals as foreign interference, framing the opposition as traitors.

Conclusion

A Precarious Balancing Act

Turkey’s opposition navigates a fraught landscape: uniting ideologically diverse factions, countering Erdogan’s legal and economic sabotage, and mobilizing public discontent without triggering severe repression.

While the CHP’s municipal successes and İmamoğlu’s popularity offer hope, Erdogan’s institutional control and willingness to employ authoritarian tactics render the opposition’s path fraught with obstacles.

The 2028 elections will test whether strategic alliances and civil resistance can overcome two decades of consolidated power.