CDU’s Strategic Exclusion of the AfD: Upholding Democratic Norms in Germany’s Coalition Calculus

Introduction

The Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) resolute refusal to form a coalition with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) following its 2025 electoral victory stems from a complex interplay of historical precedent, constitutional safeguards, and strategic political calculus.

Despite the AfD’s unprecedented second-place finish with 19.5% of the vote, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has maintained an unyielding stance against collaboration, framing it as a defense of Germany’s postwar democratic order.

This decision, while politically contentious, reflects deeply ingrained institutional safeguards against extremism and pragmatic considerations about governance stability.

The Postwar Firewall: A Constitutional Imperative

At the core of the CDU’s position lies Germany’s “firewall” policy, a postwar consensus forged in response to the catastrophic consequences of Nazi collaboration with democratic institutions.

Established parties across the political spectrum have historically rejected formal cooperation with extremist groups, a principle codified through decades of constitutional jurisprudence and political practice.

The firewall gained renewed urgency following the AfD’s classification by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency as a “suspected far-right extremist organization,” particularly due to its eastern state branches’ ties to neo-Nazi networks and Holocaust revisionism.

Merz’s reaffirmation of this principle—despite brief tactical coordination on a non-binding immigration motion in January 2025—underscores its sacrosanct status.

While the CDU accepted AfD votes to pass a symbolic border control proposal, Merz swiftly faced nationwide protests involving over 160,000 citizens, who viewed even limited collaboration as a betrayal of democratic values.

This public backlash reinforced the firewall’s societal resonance, with 72% of CDU voters opposing any coalition with the AfD in pre-election polling.

The AfD’s Ideological Incompatibility

Fundamental policy divergences further preclude coalition viability.

The AfD’s platform advocates radical measures such as Germany’s withdrawal from NATO, the dissolution of the eurozone, and mass deportations of asylum seekers—positions irreconcilable with the CDU’s pro-EU, transatlanticist orientation.

Notably, the AfD’s alignment with figures like Elon Musk and Donald Trump advisor JD Vance, who praised the party’s “America First” foreign policy vision at the 2025 Munich Security Conference, has heightened concerns about its destabilizing impact on Germany’s international alliances.

Constitutional scholars emphasize that key AfD policies, including its proposed “remigration” program, violate Article 1 of Germany’s Basic Law, which enshrines human dignity as inviolable.

Collaborating with the party risks judicial intervention, as seen in 2024 when the Federal Constitutional Court banned the AfD-affiliated “Wing” faction for anti-democratic activities.

Strategic Coalition Mathematics

Pragmatic electoral calculations also shape the CDU’s stance.

With the AfD holding 19.5% of seats, a CDU-AfD alliance would control just 48.5% of the Bundestag—insufficient for a majority government.

Securing additional partners from the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) or the left-populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) would require ideologically contradictory compromises, such as abandoning the CDU’s debt brake commitments or green energy transition timelines.

By contrast, a “grand coalition” with the SPD (16%) and Greens (13%) offers a stable 57.5% majority, enabling consensus on fiscal reforms and defense spending while preserving the CDU’s pro-market agenda.

Merz’s televised debate commitment to this centrist alignment reflects internal party modeling showing that AfD collaboration would alienate 34% of CDU’s moderate voters, jeopardizing long-term electoral viability.

Economic Stability and Investor Confidence

Financial markets have amplified pressure against AfD inclusion.

The DAX index surged 3.2% following Merz’s post-election pledge to exclude the far right, reflecting investor concerns about the AfD’s Eurosceptic economic policies.

Germany’s recession-plagued economy, shrinking for three consecutive years, cannot withstand the uncertainty of an untested far-right partnership, particularly given the AfD’s opposition to EU recovery funds and the Inflation Reduction Act subsidies critical for German manufacturers.

Conclusion

Defending the Center

The CDU’s firewall against the AfD represents neither naivety nor democratic rigidity, but a strategic recognition that legitimizing far-right extremism would exacerbate Germany’s political and economic crises.

While the AfD’s electoral gains signal legitimate voter discontent, Merz’s centrist coalition strategy offers a pathway to address these grievances through constitutional means—a lesson etched into Germany’s historical consciousness.

As Europe grapples with rising illiberalism, the CDU’s stance reaffirms the resilience of democratic norms against short-term populist temptations.