CDU Electoral Victory and the Implications of Coalition Strategy in Germany’s 2025 Federal Election

Introduction

The 2025 German federal election has delivered a decisive victory for the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), which secured 29% of the vote according to exit polls.

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerged as the second-largest party with 19.5%, marking its strongest electoral performance to date.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a historic defeat, plummeting to 16%, while the Greens and Free Democratic Party (FDP) secured 13% and 5%, respectively.

Friedrich Merz, the CDU’s leader, now faces the complex task of forming a governing coalition in a fragmented Bundestag.

His insistence on excluding the AfD from coalition negotiations—despite its electoral gains—has sparked debate over whether this stance represents a principled defense of democratic norms or a strategic miscalculation that could destabilize Germany’s economy and political landscape.

Electoral Dynamics and the AfD’s Ascendancy

The AfD’s surge to 19.5% reflects deepening voter dissatisfaction with Germany’s economic stagnation, immigration policies, and the perceived inefficacy of traditional parties.

Over the past decade, the party has evolved from a Eurosceptic protest movement into a far-right force capitalizing on anti-migrant sentiment and economic anxiety.

Its success in eastern states, where it commands over 30% support in some regions, underscores a regional divide rooted in post-reunification disparities.

The AfD’s campaign focused on stringent immigration controls, opposition to green energy transitions, and skepticism of NATO, aligning it with the rhetoric of Donald Trump’s administration and figures like Elon Musk, who has publicly endorsed the party.

The CDU’s refusal to collaborate with the AfD stems from a longstanding “firewall” policy, a post-war consensus among democratic parties to isolate extremist groups.

This principle was tested in January 2025, when Merz briefly accepted AfD support to pass a non-binding motion on migration, triggering nationwide protests and internal party criticism.

Although Merz later reaffirmed his rejection of any alliance, the incident exposed vulnerabilities in the CDU’s strategy: by adopting hardline positions on immigration to counter the AfD, the party risks normalizing far-right narratives without reaping electoral benefits.

Economic Challenges and the Coalition Calculus

Germany’s economic outlook remains precarious, with three consecutive years of recession driven by energy crises, inflationary pressures, and declining industrial output.

The CDU’s campaign emphasized revitalizing growth through tax cuts, deregulation, and increased defense spending to meet NATO targets.

However, Merz’s commitment to the “debt brake”—a constitutional limit on deficit spending—has drawn criticism from the SPD and Greens, who argue that loosening fiscal restraints is essential for public investment.

Forming a stable coalition without the AfD’s support will require the CDU to negotiate with ideologically divergent partners.

A CDU-SPD “grand coalition” could replicate the dysfunction of Scholz’s government,

while a CDU-Green alliance would face clashes over climate policy.

Alternatively, a three-way coalition involving the FDP might satisfy fiscal conservatives but lack parliamentary cohesion.

Prolonged negotiations could delay critical reforms, exacerbating economic stagnation and public disillusionment.

The Risks of Isolationism Versus the Costs of Legitimization

Critics of Merz’s firewall argue that excluding the AfD undermines democratic representation and forces the CDU into unstable alliances.

The AfD’s electoral base—particularly in eastern Germany—views the firewall as elitist disenfranchisement, a perception the party exploits to fuel its populist appeal.

Moreover, the AfD’s growing influence in transatlantic relations, evidenced by JD Vance’s endorsement at the Munich Security Conference, suggests that marginalizing the party diplomatically may become untenable.

However, legitimizing the AfD through coalition participation carries profound risks.

The party’s extremist factions, including neo-Nazi sympathizers and Holocaust revisionists, contravene Germany’s constitutional order.

Collaboration would embolden far-right movements across Europe, destabilizing EU unity on issues like Ukraine and migration.

Domestically, it could trigger a backlash from centrist voters and exacerbate social polarization, as seen in the 160,000-strong Berlin protests against CDU-AfD cooperation.

The Path Forward: Coalition Prospects and Policy Compromises

The CDU’s most viable path lies in a “traffic light” coalition with the SPD and Greens, despite policy disagreements. Key compromises might include:

Fiscal Policy

Moderating the debt brake to allow targeted investments in infrastructure and defense, paired with spending cuts in non-essential sectors.

Immigration

Balancing stricter border controls with expanded legal migration channels for skilled workers, addressing labor shortages while appeasing anti-migrant sentiment.

Energy Transition

Slowing the phaseout of nuclear and coal plants to ensure energy security, while incrementally expanding renewables.

Such a coalition would face internal strife but could stabilize markets by averting prolonged uncertainty.

Investors have already reacted positively to the CDU’s victory, with the DAX index reaching record highs on expectations of pro-business reforms.

Conclusion

A Test of Democratic Resilience

The CDU’s decision to shun the AfD is not a tactical error but a necessary defense of Germany’s democratic foundations.

While economic headwinds and political fragmentation pose significant challenges, Merz’s commitment to centrist alliances offers a clearer route to sustainable governance than the volatility of far-right appeasement.

The election’s true legacy will depend on whether Germany’s political center can address voter grievances without eroding the norms that have safeguarded its postwar stability.

As the Bundestag negotiations unfold, the nation’s ability to reconcile economic pragmatism with democratic principles will determine its trajectory in an increasingly uncertain world.