Cameroon in grip of French? Is civil movement eminent?

Introduction

Cameroon’s relationship with France remains complex and evolving as the country approaches its 2025 presidential election. While France’s influence persists, there are signs of shifting dynamics and growing calls for change:

French Influence

France continues to maintain significant economic and political ties with Cameroon:

France remains Cameroon’s second-largest trading partner, with French exports to Cameroon reaching €541.6 million in 2021.

Around 100 French subsidiaries and 200 French-owned businesses operate in Cameroon across sectors like oil, banking, and retail.

France provides substantial development assistance, totaling €147.9 million in 2020.

Military cooperation between the two countries remains important, with France involved in training Cameroonian forces.

However, France’s dominant position has weakened in recent years:

French companies have lost about 30% market share in Cameroon over the past three decades.

China has emerged as a major economic partner, accounting for 67% of foreign direct investment in Cameroon between 2000-2014.

Calls for Change

There are growing signs of discontent and calls for reform in Cameroon:

Opposition groups and civil society organizations are pushing for democratic reforms ahead of the 2025 election.

Protests and unrest followed previous elections in 2018 and 2020 amid claims of electoral fraud.

The Anglophone crisis in Cameroon’s Northwest and Southwest regions has escalated demands for autonomy or independence from some groups.

Young leaders increasingly want to take control of national issues without foreign influence.

Outlook for Civil Movement

While there is no imminent large-scale civil movement, several factors could contribute to increased activism and protests:

The upcoming 2025 presidential election is likely to be a flashpoint, especially if 91-year-old President Paul Biya seeks another term.

Opposition groups are mobilizing to increase voter registration and turnout.

Growing youth unemployment and economic challenges could fuel discontent.

The ongoing Anglophone crisis remains a source of tension and potential instability.

However, the government has shown a willingness to use force to suppress dissent, and opposition remains fragmented. Any significant civil movement would likely face considerable obstacles.

Conclusion

France’s grip on Cameroon has loosened somewhat, it remains an influential partner. The potential for increased civil activism exists, particularly surrounding the 2025 election, but a cohesive, large-scale movement has not yet emerged.