What is current Socio-economic and political update in South Sudan? Is Sudan or foreign mercenaries trying to destabilize South Sudan?

Introduction

South Sudan continues to face significant socio-economic and political challenges in early 2025

Economic Situation

The economy remains heavily dependent on oil exports, which have been severely disrupted by the ongoing conflict in Sudan.

Hyperinflation and currency depreciation have led to soaring food prices and living costs.

Government workers have gone unpaid for months, exacerbating economic hardships.

The cost of a household minimum expenditure basket increased by 250% between February and September 2024.

Humanitarian Crisis

Approximately 9.3 million people, or 69% of the population, require humanitarian assistance in 2025.

Food insecurity remains critical, with 7.7 million people expected to face crisis levels or worse during the lean season of April-July 2025.

The country faces multiple disease outbreaks, including cholera, measles, and malaria.

Severe flooding, now in its fifth consecutive year, has further strained resources and displaced populations.

Political Landscape

Elections originally scheduled for December 2024 have been postponed to 2026, extending the transitional period.

Implementation of the 2018 peace agreement has been slow, with many issues remaining unaddressed.

Tensions persist between President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar.

Security Situation

Sub-national violence, including clashes with armed groups, continues to disrupt humanitarian activities and cause displacement.

An armed insurgency in the south, led by Thomas Cirillo and his National Salvation Front (NSF), poses a threat to civilians and the peace process.

Sudan’s Influence and Foreign Mercenaries

While there is no direct evidence of Sudan or foreign mercenaries actively trying to destabilize South Sudan, several factors contribute to regional instability

Sudan’s ongoing civil war has significant spillover effects on South Sudan

Over 877,000 returnees, refugees, and asylum-seekers have crossed into South Sudan from Sudan since April 2023.

The conflict has disrupted cross-border trade and blocked humanitarian corridors.

There are reports of mercenary activities in the region, though primarily focused on Sudan

Colombian mercenaries have been involved in fighting for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.

The United States has accused the RSF of employing foreign mercenaries from countries like Chad, Mali, and Niger.

South Sudan has expressed concerns about the treatment of its citizens in Sudan

South Sudan summoned Sudan’s ambassador to protest alleged abuses of South Sudanese nationals in Wad Madani.

There are accusations of South Sudanese being recruited as mercenaries by the RSF, though this is denied by South Sudan.

Conclusion

While these factors contribute to regional instability, there is no concrete evidence of a coordinated effort by Sudan or foreign mercenaries to specifically destabilize South Sudan. The primary challenges facing South Sudan appear to be internal political divisions, economic instability, and the humanitarian crisis exacerbated by regional conflicts and climate shocks.