What is current state of ISIS in Libya? Are they a threat ?
Introduction
The Islamic State (ISIS) in Libya experienced a significant rise and fall in its attempt to establish a stronghold in the country. Here’s an overview of what happened:
Rise of ISIS in Libya
ISIS took advantage of the chaos following the fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in 2011 to establish a presence in Libya. Key developments include:
Late 2014: ISIS announced the establishment of a Libyan affiliate
2015: The group expanded rapidly, gaining control of Sirte and surrounding areas
At its peak, ISIS controlled about 250km of Libyan coastline
Estimates suggest ISIS had between 5,000 and 6,000 fighters in Libya by early 2016
Defeat and Territorial Losses
ISIS’s control in Libya was short-lived:
December 2016: ISIS lost its last territorial control when it was driven out of Sirte
The defeat came after a six-month offensive by Libyan forces, supported by U.S. airstrikes
By the end of 2016, most ISIS fighters had fled to Libya’s southern deserts or neighboring countries
Post-Territorial Phase
After losing its territory, ISIS in Libya adapted its strategy:
The group shifted to a decentralized network of cells
It began waging a war of attrition, focusing on two main campaigns:
High-profile attacks on symbolic state institutions in Tripoli
A rural insurgency in the southwestern desert regions
Current Status
As of the most recent information available:
ISIS in Libya has not claimed responsibility for an attack in six months
The group has consolidated its three Libyan “provinces” into one entity
It faces challenges in recruitment, funding, and media capabilities
The Libyan National Army’s operations in southern Libya have further disrupted ISIS activities
Conclusion
While ISIS in Libya has been significantly weakened, it remains a potential threat due to Libya’s ongoing political instability and fragmentation
Note 10,000 ISIS prisoners in Syria and another 5-6,000 in Libya
Another large number to join, if Turkey is not stopped.
ISIS lord will be back
