How might Turkey benefit from the US withdrawal from Syria
Introduction
Turkey stands to gain several potential benefits from a US withdrawal from Syria
Greater freedom to act against Kurdish forces
Turkey has long considered the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is dominated by Kurdish fighters, as an existential threat. A US withdrawal would allow Turkey more latitude to take military action against Kurdish groups in northern Syria. This could help Turkey secure its border region and potentially establish a “safe zone” under its control.
Increased influence in Syria’s future
By taking control of additional Syrian territory, Turkey would acquire more leverage in negotiations about Syria’s political future. This could allow Turkey to shape outcomes more favorable to its interests.
Domestic political benefits
Repatriating Syrian refugees to a Turkish-controlled “safe zone” in northern Syria could boost President Erdogan’s popularity at home, as anti-refugee sentiment has been rising in Turkey.
Stronger negotiating position
As long as the US remains in Syria, Turkey has been able to play Russia and the US against each other, strengthening its hand in regional negotiations. However, a US withdrawal could potentially weaken this advantage.
Economic and security sector influence
With the fall of the Assad regime, Turkey is well-positioned to play a significant role in Syria’s reconstruction. Turkish businesses could benefit from energy and transport projects in Syria. Additionally, Turkish military and intelligence services may have opportunities to train and build capacity in Syria’s new security sector.
Diplomatic weight
Turkey’s role in ending the Assad regime has garnered goodwill among many Syrians, potentially increasing Turkey’s diplomatic influence in the region.
However, it’s important to note that a US withdrawal could also create new challenges for Turkey:
Increased Russian influence
If the US withdraws, Russia might revert to supporting Kurdish autonomy in Syria, which would be against Turkey’s interests.
Pressure on Turkish military presence
Without US forces present, Turkey may face increased pressure from Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime to reduce or remove its own military presence in Syria.
Potential Iranian dominance
An uncoordinated US withdrawal could lead to increased Iranian influence in Syria, which could pose new challenges for Turkey. Iran might prioritize removing Turkish forces from Syria if Ankara becomes the primary obstacle to Iranian dominance in the country.
Conclusion
US withdrawal from Syria offers potential benefits for Turkey, it also presents new risks and challenges. The ultimate impact on Turkey’s interests would likely depend on how the withdrawal is executed and the resulting balance of power among regional actors.
