As resurgent ISIS exploits Syria’s void, will Trump cede fight to Turkey? A dangerous cross road
Introduction
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has created a power vacuum that ISIS is actively exploiting, leading to a resurgence of the terrorist group. This situation presents a critical crossroads for regional stability and U.S. foreign policy, particularly with the incoming Trump administration.
ISIS Resurgence
ISIS has been steadily rebuilding its capabilities in Syria:
Attacks claimed by ISIS in Iraq and Syria have tripled since January 2024, with around 700 attacks reported.
The group boasts several thousand fighters and is likely using the current chaos to recruit new members.
ISIS is attempting to reconstitute following years of decreased capability.
Trump’s Potential Approach
Donald Trump’s return to the White House adds uncertainty to America’s future role in Syria
Trump has expressed a desire to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria, which he once referred to as a land of “sand and death”.
He may be inclined to reach an agreement with Turkey to end America’s military presence in Syria entirely.
Trump’s congenial relationship with Turkish President Erdogan could influence his decision-making.
Turkey’s Ambitions
Turkey sees an opportunity to advance its interests in Syria:
Ankara aims to marginalize Kurdish groups in Syria, particularly the YPG and PYD.
Turkey may seek to reduce Iranian and Hezbollah presence in Syria.
Erdogan has threatened to launch a military offensive against Kurdish forces in Syria.
Implications for Counter-ISIS Efforts
The potential U.S. withdrawal and Turkish intervention could have severe consequences:
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), crucial in combating ISIS, may be forced to divert attention to defend against Turkish-backed forces.
There are concerns about Turkey’s commitment to fighting extremist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda.
A U.S. withdrawal could lead to attempted prison breaks, freeing thousands of ISIS fighters currently under SDF control.
A Dangerous Crossroads
The situation in Syria represents a critical juncture:
The fight against ISIS faces a pivotal moment with the potential change in U.S. leadership.
There’s a risk of undoing years of progress in the fight against ISIS if the U.S. withdraws support from the SDF.
The stability of the region and the containment of terrorist threats hang in the balance.
Conclusion
As Syria stands at this dangerous crossroads, the decisions made by the incoming Trump administration regarding U.S. involvement and Turkey’s role will have far-reaching consequences for regional security and the ongoing fight against ISIS.
