Disarmament and political shift: What Turkey would accept from Syria's SDF
Picture : Syrian National Army backed by HTS & Turkey
Introduction
Turkey’s stance towards the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has evolved significantly following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. While Ankara has long viewed the SDF, particularly its Kurdish components, as a security threat, recent developments suggest a potential shift in Turkey’s approach.
Turkey’s Traditional Position
Historically, Turkey has considered the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the main component of the SDF, as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which it designates as a terrorist organization. This led to multiple Turkish military operations in northern Syria aimed at preventing the establishment of a Kurdish-controlled area along its border.
Changing Dynamics
The collapse of the Assad regime has altered the strategic landscape in Syria, prompting Turkey to reassess its position.
Weakened SDF Position
The SDF has lost the protection it previously enjoyed from both the Assad regime and Russia, making it more vulnerable to Turkish pressure.
New Power Brokers
The emergence of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as a significant actor in Syria, backed by Turkey, has further complicated the situation for the SDF.
US Role
Despite continued US support for the SDF, there are indications that Washington is working towards a “managed transition” of the SDF’s role in northeast Syria.
Turkey’s Potential Concessions
Recent developments suggest that Turkey might be willing to make some concessions regarding the SDF’s future in Syria:
Limited Autonomy
There are indications that Turkey may accept a form of Kurdish self-rule in Syria under certain conditions.
Integration into Syrian Army
Turkey might support the integration of SDF forces into a new Syrian national army, provided it happens under a negotiated framework.
Disarmament of PKK
A key condition for any Turkish acceptance of SDF autonomy would likely be the complete disarmament of the PKK.
SDF’s Position
The SDF leadership has shown some flexibility but maintains certain red lines:
Rejection of Immediate Disarmament
SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi has rejected calls for unilateral disarmament.
Willingness to Integrate
The SDF has expressed readiness to integrate into a new Syrian army under a negotiated agreement.
Demand for Political Process
The SDF insists on a genuine political process in Syria where it can play a key role in shaping the country’s future.
Potential Roadmap
A possible path forward could involve:
Phased Disarmament
A gradual process of SDF disarmament coupled with political guarantees for Kurdish rights.
Turkish-Kurdish Dialogue
Renewed efforts to restart peace talks between Turkey and Kurdish groups, potentially mediated by Iraqi Kurdish leader Masoud Barzani.
International Guarantees
Involvement of the US and other international actors to ensure the implementation of any agreement and protect Kurdish interests.
Conclusion
While significant challenges remain, the changing dynamics in Syria have created an opportunity for a potential shift in Turkey’s approach to the SDF. However, any resolution will require careful negotiation and compromise from all parties involved.
