History does not forget or forgive ! Will Hamas - Israel ceasefire last?

Introduction

The recently announced ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, set to begin on Sunday, January 19, 2025, offers a glimmer of hope for ending the 15-month conflict in Gaza. However, the sustainability of this ceasefire remains uncertain due to several factors:

Fragile Nature of the Agreement

The ceasefire deal is structured in three phases, with the first phase lasting 42 days. During this initial period, 33 hostages will be released by Hamas in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. While this arrangement provides immediate relief, its long-term stability is not guaranteed.

Political Challenges

Israeli Government Dynamics

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government faces internal pressures. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has threatened to resign if the ceasefire deal is ratified, calling it “reckless”. This internal opposition could potentially destabilize the Israeli government and jeopardize the agreement’s implementation.

Hamas’s Position

Hamas views the ceasefire as a victory, allowing them time to regroup and potentially recruit new members. The militant group insists on maintaining a presence in any future Gaza government, which could be a point of contention in future negotiations.

Military and Security Concerns

Israel has stated that it will remain in the strategically significant Philadelphi Corridor during the first phase of the ceasefire. This continued military presence could lead to tensions and potential violations of the agreement.

Humanitarian Crisis and Reconstruction

The devastation in Gaza is extensive, with over 60% of all structures destroyed. The massive task of rebuilding and addressing the humanitarian crisis could strain the ceasefire, especially if aid delivery is hindered or if disputes arise over reconstruction efforts.

Regional and International Factors

The transition of power in the United States, with President-elect Donald Trump taking office on January 20, 2025, adds an element of uncertainty to the diplomatic landscape. The new administration’s approach to the conflict could significantly impact the ceasefire’s durability.

Potential for Renewed Hostilities

Both sides may use the ceasefire period to regroup and potentially prepare for future conflicts. Hamas has shown an ability to recruit new militants, while Israel might use the time to reassess its military strategy.

Conclusion

While the ceasefire agreement offers a much-needed respite from the violence, its long-term success is far from certain.

The complex political, military, and humanitarian challenges that led to the conflict remain largely unresolved. For the ceasefire to evolve into a lasting peace, continued diplomatic efforts, addressing root causes of the conflict, and a commitment from both sides to uphold the agreement will be crucial.

The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining whether this ceasefire can pave the way for a more stable and peaceful future in the region.

PREDICTION FAF

There are many unspoken factors we would not disclose at this moment that this war in near future will be much bigger than anyone can think. It would be start of World War III

We don’t have any bias on our writings. 95 % of our predictions come true or showed 100 % with time delay.

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