What are the main challenges facing Gabon's transition to democracy

Introduction

Gabon’s transition to democracy following the August 2023 coup faces several significant challenges:

Political Consolidation

The new constitution grants extensive powers to the presidency, including the ability to dissolve parliament and declare emergencies, potentially undermining checks and balances.

General Brice Oligui Nguema, who led the coup, has not been excluded from running in future elections, raising concerns about the transition’s impartiality.

The junta played a dominant role in drafting the new constitution, leading to questions about the process’s transparency.

Electoral Integrity

There are concerns about the fairness and transparency of the upcoming 2025 elections.

Responsibility for overseeing elections has been transferred from the electoral commission to the Ministry of Interior, potentially compromising independence.

Gabon has a history of vote rigging and disputed elections, which may undermine trust in the electoral process.

Economic Challenges

Despite its oil wealth, Gabon faces high youth unemployment (estimated at 40%) and significant poverty.

The country is grappling with a challenging fiscal position, including a widening budget deficit and difficulties in debt repayment.

There is pressure to address economic inequalities and improve living conditions for the population.

Civil Society and Opposition Participation

Many opposition parties were banned from participating in the national dialogue that shaped the new constitution.

There are concerns about restrictions on political participation and assembly rights.

The stifling of dissent, with criticisms of the transition process being branded as unpatriotic, poses a challenge to open dialogue.

Political challenge

The Gabonese presidential election is being meticulously organized as a means to bestow a measure of legitimacy upon the military regime led by Brigadier General Brice Oligui Nguema, who assumed power through a coup on August 30, 2023.

General Oligui has executed a strategically planned series of actions to ensure an unobstructed path to the presidency in this resource-rich nation of 2.5 million people situated within the vital Congo Basin region.

These actions include declaring himself as the Transitional President on September 4, 2023, appointing loyalists to two-thirds of the Senate and National Assembly, naming all nine members of the Constitutional Court, and hosting a meticulously controlled national dialogue in mid-2024. This dialogue notably excluded 200 political parties and featured significant military involvement.

The proceedings resulted in the rewriting of the constitution, which now permits military members to run for political office, eliminates the position of prime minister, extends presidential terms to seven years, and abolishes the two-round electoral system, thereby reducing the threshold of popular support required.

These constitutional amendments further centralize authority within Gabon's already highly centralized executive branch.

The changes were subsequently ratified in a perfunctory constitutional referendum in November 2024.

Institutional Reform

Rebuilding trust in key institutions such as the judiciary, legislature, and independent media is crucial for democratic consolidation.

Establishing a truly independent electoral commission is essential for enhancing citizen trust in electoral outcomes.

International Support and Scrutiny

Balancing international expectations for a swift return to constitutional order with the need for genuine democratic reforms presents a challenge.

Maintaining investor confidence and managing economic reforms while under international scrutiny adds complexity to the transition process.

Conclusion

The success of Gabon’s transition will largely depend on how these challenges are addressed in the lead-up to the 2025 elections and beyond.