Jan 17

Jan 17 Gabon - Socio-economic and political landscape - GDP should double by 2030

Gabon is currently in a period of political transition following a military coup in August 2023. Here’s an update on the country’s socio-economic and political situation:

Political Developments

The military junta, led by General Brice Oligui Nguema, took power on August 30, 2023, ousting President Ali Bongo. Since then, Nguema has been serving as the transitional leader and has implemented several changes:

A new constitution was adopted through a referendum in November 2024.

The constitution allows military members to contest political office and extends presidential terms to seven years.

A presidential election is scheduled for March 22, 2025.

There are concerns that the electoral process may favor the interim authorities, as Nguema has been granted an exception to run for the presidency despite being a transitional leader.

Economic Situation

Gabon’s economy is experiencing both challenges and opportunities:

Growth is expected to remain positive but moderate in the coming years due to the gradual depletion of oil reserves projected from 2025 onwards.

The mining, timber, and agricultural sectors are anticipated to become the new engines of Gabonese growth.

Inflation is expected to fall further in 2025, remaining below the regional convergence threshold of 3%.

The budget deficit is projected to widen in 2025 due to increased public spending, including the extension of fuel subsidies and a rise in public sector wages.

Social Issues

Despite its oil wealth and relatively high per capita income, Gabon still faces significant social challenges:

An estimated 40% youth unemployment rate persists.

The country continues to struggle with high infant mortality rates and lack of basic sanitation services.

There are high expectations for improved living conditions following the change in government.

International Relations

Gabon’s international standing has been affected by recent events:

The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) lifted its political sanctions against Gabon in March 2024.

France has maintained an open dialogue with the junta due to its strategic extractive interests in the country.

The United States announced a $5 million aid package in October 2024 to support the democratic transition.

Future Outlook

The upcoming 2025 elections will be a critical juncture for Gabon’s future. While the transitional government has promised a return to democratic rule, there are concerns about the fairness of the electoral process and the potential consolidation of military power. The country’s economic diversification efforts and management of its natural resources will play crucial roles in determining its socio-economic trajectory in the coming years.

FAF believes that if even half of the 40% young population becomes economically active, it could increase the per capita GDP by 5-10%. Gabon should focus on vocational training in key areas and integrate a digital strategy into their budget. With its abundant untapped resources, the country has the potential to double its GDP by 2030.

Antonio V Bhardwaj

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