The Limits of a Verbal Ceasefire Between Gaza and Israel: An Israeli Perspective

Introduction

The proposed ceasefire with Hamas, which includes the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for a ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners, is at a critical stage. Israeli political officials are awaiting Hamas’s final response, with the agreement expected to take effect within approximately 48 hours if final agreements are reached.

History

The ongoing Israeli-Hamas conflict remains one of the most contentious issues in the Middle East, with each ceasefire offering a brief reprieve, often overshadowed by doubts about its longevity and effectiveness. From an Israeli perspective, any ceasefire—no matter how short—is inherently risky. This is primarily because of Hamas’s consistent pattern of exploiting periods of calm to reorganize, rearm, and plan for future violence. These concerns are rooted in Israel’s experiences with past ceasefires, where Hamas used breaks in fighting not as an opportunity for peace, but for military buildup. 

Verbal cease-fire

The Israeli fear that a ceasefire could be leveraged by Hamas for further strategic advantage was painfully realized during the October 7th attack, when Hamas launched a surprise, large-scale assault despite a relatively calm period beforehand. This highlights the core issue for Israel: ceasefires, while temporarily halting the violence, often allow Hamas to strengthen its position, only to resume hostilities with greater force.

On the other hand, the current deal for the release of hostages—linked to a ceasefire—presents an undeniable humanitarian benefit. The hope is that it can lead to the safe return of civilians who have been taken hostage by Hamas, a situation that can be seen as one of the few positive outcomes from a ceasefire agreement under the current circumstances. In fact, such deals, while deeply problematic from a security perspective, offer a glimmer of hope for families caught in the horrors of this ongoing conflict.

Israeli sentiments

However, public sentiment on the streets of Israel reflects both caution and a certain level of hope. Many Israelis express deep skepticism about the ceasefire, fearing it might be manipulated by Hamas to prepare for the next round of violence. At the same time, there remains a collective hope that these pauses in the fighting could lead to the release of hostages and a temporary reduction in violence, however fragile that peace may be.

Gaza’s Residents

It’s also crucial to acknowledge the suffering of Gaza’s residents under Hamas’s rule. Instead of investing in infrastructure and services to improve daily life, Hamas has diverted resources toward military endeavors. This misallocation has led to deteriorating living conditions for the people of Gaza. Many residents, regardless of their political affiliations, yearn for a future free from oppression and violence. They deserve a leadership that prioritizes their well-being and seeks peaceful coexistence. 

International Involvement

International actors have played significant roles in mediating ceasefires between Israel and Hamas. The United States has generally supported Israel but has also called for ceasefires to prevent further escalation. Qatar has often served as an intermediary, leveraging its diplomatic ties with Hamas to facilitate agreements. Egypt has been instrumental in brokering ceasefires, aiming to maintain stability along its border with Gaza. The United Nations has consistently called for ceasefires and provided humanitarian aid to Gaza, emphasizing the need for a peaceful resolution to the conflict.

Looking Ahead: The Next 20 Years

Over the next two decades, unless there is a shift in Gaza’s political landscape, Israel is likely to continue grappling with the cycle of violence and ceasefire negotiations. Finding a long-term solution will require overcoming significant political hurdles, with international actors playing a key role in facilitating peace. However, any meaningful change will require not only security guarantees for Israel but also a comprehensive political agreement that meets Palestinian aspirations, making lasting peace a distant but crucial goal.

Conclusion

The current ceasefire offers a temporary respite, but its sustainability hinges on the final agreements and the effective implementation by both parties.

The proposed arrangement with Hamas, involving the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for a ceasefire and the release of Palestinian prisoners, is at a critical juncture. Israeli political officials are awaiting Hamas’s final response, with the agreement anticipated to take effect within approximately 48 hours, pending finalization.

However, the history of ceasefires with Hamas underscores their fragility, stemming from mutual distrust and frequent violations. As a result, it remains challenging to predict whether the current ceasefire will endure over time.