As Iran ramps up missile production, is it readying for war with Israel?
Introduction
Iran’s recent actions suggest it is preparing for potential conflict with Israel, though not necessarily seeking outright war. Several key developments indicate Iran’s heightened military readiness:
Missile Production and Storage
Iran has unveiled a new underground “missile city” housing advanced ballistic missiles like the Emad, Qadr, and Qiam. This facility was reportedly used in Iran’s October 2024 strike against Israel. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims missile production is increasing “on a daily basis”, despite Israeli strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s missile manufacturing capabilities.
Military Exercises and Drills
The IRGC has doubled the number of military drills compared to the previous year, citing an “evolving threat landscape”. Iran plans to conduct 30 joint land, air, and naval exercises in six provinces through mid-March. A large naval parade in the Strait of Hormuz is also scheduled for late February to unveil new equipment.
Air Defense Preparations
Iran is conducting nationwide air defense exercises near sensitive sites, reportedly involving “new and unknown systems”. This follows Israeli strikes in October 2024 that allegedly damaged Iran’s S-300 air defense systems.
Motivations and Context
Several factors are driving Iran’s military preparations:
Vulnerability
Iran feels increasingly exposed after setbacks to its regional allies and Israeli strikes on its territory.
Deterrence
By showcasing its missile capabilities and military readiness, Iran likely aims to deter further Israeli attacks.
Leverage
Iran may be building leverage ahead of potential negotiations with the incoming Trump administration.
Domestic pressures
Military posturing could serve to rally domestic support amid economic challenges.
Outlook
While Iran is bolstering its defenses and offensive capabilities, it does not appear to be actively seeking war. Iranian leaders are likely aware of the risks of full-scale conflict, particularly given recent setbacks to its regional network. However, the situation remains volatile, with both Iran and Israel potentially miscalculating each other’s intentions or capabilities.
The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in 2025 adds further uncertainty. Trump’s stance on Iran and potential support for Israeli military action could influence Tehran’s calculations.
Conclusion
Iran is ramping up its military preparedness, it appears to be primarily focused on deterrence and building leverage rather than initiating war. However, the risk of unintended escalation remains high given the tensions between Iran and Israel.
