Will Aoun new President of Lebanon survive Hezbollah?

Introduction

The election of Joseph Aoun as Lebanon’s new president marks a significant shift in the country’s political landscape and potentially in its relationship with Hezbollah. While Aoun’s ability to fully rein in Hezbollah remains uncertain, there are several factors that suggest he may be able to curtail the group’s influence to some extent:

Weakened Hezbollah

Hezbollah’s position has been significantly weakened in recent months but they are not wiped out. They are integrated into Lebanese culture. We fear Lebanon to become like Syria - a war zone. A long term stability is at risk as Hezbollah and Houthi won’t let dust settle. On other side Iran is still planning counter-offensive which they say may change world dynamics.

Devastating war with Israel

The conflict in late 2023 dealt severe blows to Hezbollah, damaging its military capabilities and undermining its domestic standing. But Hezbollah is not done with it yet.

Fall of Assad regime

The ousting of Bashar al-Assad in Syria in December 2024 deprived Hezbollah of a key ally and cut off its land route for arms and funding. There is a strong indication of Jordan regime fall out. Arms and ammunition can come through different routes even Egypt.

Diminished Iranian influence

Iran’s regional setbacks have reduced its ability to support Hezbollah effectively.

This weakened state has forced Hezbollah to focus on survival rather than asserting dominance in Lebanese politics.

US and Saudi Support

Aoun’s election was backed by both the United States and Saudi Arabia, indicating a shift in regional dynamics:

Diplomatic efforts

Both countries engaged in significant diplomatic efforts to garner support for Aoun.

Financial incentives

There are reports of Saudi Arabia offering substantial financial support for Lebanon’s reconstruction if Aoun was elected.

Renewed engagement

Saudi Arabia’s invitation for Aoun to visit signals a potential revival of its influence in Lebanon after years of disengagement.

This external support provides Aoun with leverage to potentially counterbalance Hezbollah’s influence.

Aoun’s Approach

While Aoun may not directly confront Hezbollah, he has signaled intentions to address some key issues:

State monopoly on weapons

In his inaugural address, Aoun pledged to centralize control of weaponry under state authority, implicitly challenging Hezbollah’s arsenal.

National defense strategy

Aoun is likely to resume efforts to forge a comprehensive national defense strategy aimed at restoring the state’s monopoly over the use of force.

Positive neutrality

Aoun has spoken about establishing “positive neutrality” for Lebanon, potentially distancing the country from regional conflicts.

Challenges Ahead

Despite these factors, Aoun faces significant challenges in reining in Hezbollah:

Hezbollah’s entrenched position

The group remains deeply interwoven into Lebanon’s social and political fabric.

Economic crisis

Lebanon’s dire economic situation may limit Aoun’s ability to focus on security issues.

Political balancing act

Aoun will need to navigate complex sectarian politics and may need to make compromises to maintain stability.

Conclusion

Aoun’s presidency, backed by US and Saudi support, presents an opportunity to reduce Hezbollah’s influence, fully reining in the group remains a complex and challenging task.

The success of this endeavor will depend on Aoun’s ability to leverage international support, implement reforms, and navigate Lebanon’s intricate political landscape while addressing the country’s pressing economic challenges.