How might Hezbollah respond to Aoun's pledge to disarm them
Introduction
Hezbollah is likely to respond cautiously and pragmatically to President Joseph Aoun’s pledge to disarm them, given their weakened position and the changing regional dynamics. However, the group is unlikely to fully relinquish its weapons in the short term. Here’s how Hezbollah might respond:
Cautious Cooperation
Hezbollah may initially adopt a stance of cautious cooperation with the new president:
Limited compliance
The group might partially comply with disarmament efforts, particularly in southern Lebanon, as required by the ceasefire agreement with Israel.
Political engagement
Hezbollah may seek to engage in political dialogue to protect its interests and negotiate the terms of any potential disarmament process.
Resistance and Delay Tactics
Despite their weakened position, Hezbollah is likely to resist full disarmament:
Emphasizing state protection
The group may argue that its weapons are necessary to protect Lebanon from external threats, particularly Israel.
Gradual approach
Hezbollah might push for a phased disarmament process, seeking to delay full compliance while maintaining some of its military capabilities.
Focus on Reconstruction
Hezbollah may shift its focus to reconstruction efforts:
Prioritizing rebuilding
The group is keen to see reconstruction of areas destroyed in the war with Israel, which could be used as leverage in negotiations about disarmament.
Maintaining social influence
By focusing on reconstruction and social services, Hezbollah may attempt to maintain its influence and popular support base.
Internal Transformation
Hezbollah might consider internal changes to adapt to the new political landscape:
Political party transition
The group may gradually transform itself into a purely political party without a military component, as suggested by some analysts.
Redefining role
Hezbollah could seek to redefine its role within Lebanon’s political system, emphasizing its political and social functions over its military aspects.
Potential for Conflict
While outright conflict is unlikely, there are risks:
Resistance to forceful disarmament
Any attempts to forcibly disarm Hezbollah could potentially lead to internal conflict, which Aoun is likely to avoid.
Monitoring ceasefire implementation
Hezbollah will closely watch how the ceasefire agreement is implemented, particularly regarding the deployment of the Lebanese Army in the south.
Conclusion
Hezbollah’s response to Aoun’s disarmament pledge is likely to be a mix of limited compliance, political maneuvering, and a focus on maintaining its influence through non-military means. The group’s weakened position and changing regional dynamics may force it to adapt, but full disarmament remains a complex and potentially long-term process.
