Ethiopia’s Infrastructure Disaster: How Tectonic Reality Exposes the Risks of Reckless Development

Introduction

Ethiopia’s ambitious infrastructure development plans face significant challenges due to the country’s complex tectonic setting and vulnerability to natural hazards. The interplay between geological realities and rapid development exposes critical risks that require careful consideration.

Tectonic Setting and Natural Hazards

Ethiopia is situated in a tectonically active region, with the East African Rift System running through the center of the country. This geological setting makes Ethiopia prone to various natural hazards

Earthquakes

The country experiences numerous earthquake events annually, with a recent study revealing 7,000 seismic events in Ethiopia and adjacent areas between 1900-2016.

Volcanic activity

Ethiopia has several active volcanoes that pose potential threats.

Landslides

The Blue Nile River Basin, where major infrastructure projects are located, is particularly susceptible to landslide events due to high elevation terrain, heavy rain, earthquakes, faults, and unconsolidated soil materials.

Infrastructure Development and Associated Risks

Ethiopia has embarked on ambitious infrastructure projects to boost economic growth, but these developments face significant geological challenges:

Power Sector

The country needs to add 8,700 megawatts of generating capacity over the next decade, doubling its current capacity.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile, while promising for hydropower potential, faces geological risks and political challenges with downstream countries.

Transportation Infrastructure

Ethiopia has invested heavily in road infrastructure, dedicating 3% of GDP to road investments.

However, the country still faces challenges in rural accessibility and road maintenance.

The railway system requires significant upgrades and expansion.

Urban Development

Rapid urbanization, particularly in Addis Ababa, increases vulnerability to urban flooding and seismic risks.

Exposed Vulnerabilities

The ambitious infrastructure projects have exposed several vulnerabilities:

Seismic Risk

Many infrastructure projects, including dams and urban developments, are located in seismically active areas, increasing the risk of damage during earthquakes.

Landslide Hazards

Major infrastructure, particularly in the highlands and along river basins, is at risk from landslides triggered by heavy rainfall or seismic activity.

Inadequate Risk Assessment

There is a lack of comprehensive seismic hazard mapping and risk assessment for infrastructure projects.

Limited Disaster Preparedness

Ethiopia’s disaster risk management capabilities, while improving, are still developing and may be insufficient to handle major infrastructure failures.

Financial Strain

The cost of addressing Ethiopia’s infrastructure deficit is estimated at $5.1 billion annually over the next decade, which is a significant burden for the country’s economy.

Loss in Ethiopia

Several countries and international organizations have provided financial support to Ethiopia, but faced challenges:

The European Union suspended budget support worth 88 million euros ($107 million) due to the conflict in Tigray.

The World Bank has committed to providing around $6 billion in new commitments over the next three fiscal years.

China has been a major lender to Ethiopia, providing $14.83 billion in loans from 2006-2018.

UAE’s Investments:

The UAE pledged $3 billion in aid to Ethiopia in 2018, including a $1 billion deposit in Ethiopia’s National Bank.

In 2023, Ethiopia and the UAE signed 17 cooperation agreements covering various fields, including a partnership between Abu Dhabi Ports and Ethiopian Investment Holdings.

The UAE sees Ethiopia as a robust partner for both immediate economic gains and long-term strategic partnerships.

Turkey’s Involvement:

Turkey has been deepening its footprint in the Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia, through economic investment, security cooperation, and humanitarian aid.

Turkish military exports to Ethiopia increased from $234,000 in 2020 to nearly $95 million in 2021.

Turkey has positioned itself as a mediator in regional conflicts, potentially opening up opportunities for Turkish companies in infrastructure projects.

Ethiopia has faced significant economic difficulties

The country defaulted on a $33 million coupon payment for a $1 billion Eurobond in December 2023.

Ethiopia requested debt relief from G-20 countries in 2023 after obtaining debt relief from China.

The cost of reconstruction after the Tigray conflict is estimated at $20 billion.

Foreign investments have also faced challenges

Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to Ethiopia declined by 6% during the Tigray war.

More than a quarter of foreign agricultural investments in Ethiopia have failed.

While these points don’t directly answer which countries lost money helping rebuild Ethiopia, they illustrate the economic challenges and risks faced by countries and organizations providing financial assistance to Ethiopia. The suspension of aid, requests for debt relief, and investment failures suggest that various international partners may have experienced financial setbacks in their efforts to support Ethiopia’s development and reconstruction

Recommendations

To address these challenges and mitigate risks, Ethiopia should consider:

Conducting comprehensive geological and seismic risk assessments before initiating major infrastructure projects.

Implementing stricter building codes and land-use planning, especially in urban areas and for critical infrastructure.

Investing in early warning systems and disaster preparedness measures.

Prioritizing maintenance and upgrading of existing infrastructure to improve resilience.

Developing a more diverse energy portfolio to reduce reliance on large-scale hydropower projects in geologically sensitive areas.

Conclusion

The dramatic geological events unfolding in Ethiopia have laid bare the dangerous gamble taken by investors like China, the UAE, and Turkey. Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions along the East African Rift are tearing apart key infrastructure, including Ethiopia’s major highways to Djibouti. Roads are splitting, villages are displaced, and billions of dollars in international loans are now at risk of evaporating.

By addressing these issues, Ethiopia can work towards creating a more resilient and sustainable infrastructure network that supports its development goals while minimizing risks associated with its unique geological setting. This seems far long term