Is HTS, ISIS or Al-Qaeda leading in Syria

Introduction

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is currently leading the insurgency in Syria, not ISIS or Al-Qaeda. HTS has emerged as the dominant force among Syrian opposition groups and has recently made significant territorial gains against the Assad regime.

Recent Developments

HTS-led forces have achieved remarkable success in a short period:

Captured Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city

Gained complete control of Idlib province

Advanced into Hama province, engaging in heavy clashes with the Syrian army

Expanded their control to encompass much of northwestern Syria

HTS Background and Evolution

HTS has a complex history tied to both Al-Qaeda and ISIS:

Originally emerged as a branch of the Islamic State (ISIS)

Later allied with Al-Qaeda as Jabhat al-Nusra

Severed ties with Al-Qaeda in 2016 and rebranded as HTS

Despite its origins, HTS has transformed itself:

Shifted focus from global jihad to a more nationalist agenda

Positioned itself as a stabilizing presence in northwest Syria

Established the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) to administer opposition-held territories

Current Status

HTS is now the largest and most influential opposition group in Syria:

Estimated to have around 30,000 fighters

Controls significant economic resources, including oil and the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey

Leads a coalition of smaller rebel factions in the recent offensive

While HTS is leading the insurgency, it’s important to note that:

The group is still designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and other countries

It maintains a Salafi-Jihadist ideology, though focused on local Syrian objectives rather than global ones

The group has received support from Turkey, which has been crucial for its governance of Idlib

Conclusion

HTS has its roots in both ISIS and Al-Qaeda, it has evolved into a distinct entity that is currently spearheading the opposition in Syria, with a focus on national rather than global objectives.