Violation of ‘The Astana Process’ Six Years On: Peace or Deadlock in Syria?

Introduction

The Astana Process, launched in January 2017, has been a significant diplomatic effort aimed at resolving the Syrian conflict. Six years on, its impact on peace in Syria remains complex and multifaceted.

Origins and Objectives

The Astana Process was initiated as a trilateral forum sponsored by Russia, Turkey, and Iran, with Kazakhstan serving as a neutral host. Its primary goals were to:

End the armed conflict in Syria

Jumpstart formal political negotiations

Establish de-escalation zones to reduce violence

Achievements and Limitations

De-escalation Zones

One of the most notable outcomes of the Astana Process was the establishment of four de-escalation zones in Syria:

Idlib province and parts of Latakia, Aleppo, and Hama provinces

Northern Homs province

Eastern Ghouta near Damascus

Southern areas along the Jordan border

These zones initially led to a significant reduction in violence. However, between 2018 and 2019, Syrian regime forces, backed by Russia and Iran, violated the agreement and seized three of the four zones.

Ceasefire Efforts

The Astana Process has contributed to several ceasefires and helped reduce overall violence in Syria. However, clashes have continued, as evidenced by recent fighting in Aleppo’s western countryside in November 2024.

Diplomatic Platform

The process has provided a unique platform for dialogue, bringing together the Syrian government and armed opposition groups for the first time. It has also facilitated coordination between Russia, Turkey, and Iran on Syrian issues.

Criticisms and Challenges

Limited Syrian Involvement

Many Syrians have criticized the process for its lack of genuine Syrian input, feeling that external powers are imposing their will on the country.

Power Dynamics

The Astana Process has been seen as a mechanism for normalizing the military presence of its sponsors in Syria while managing interstate friction. Each guarantor state pursues its own strategic interests:

Turkey: Containment of refugee flows and curbing Kurdish autonomy

Russia and Iran: Ensuring the Assad regime’s survival to maintain their regional influence

Legitimacy Concerns

The continued participation of Syrian opposition factions in the forum is uncertain, as their involvement may compromise their credibility among Syrians.

Recent Developments and Future Prospects

The Astana Process continues to evolve, with recent developments potentially shaping its future:

Assad’s readmission to the Arab League

Turkey’s efforts to normalize relations with Syria

Russia and Iran’s international isolation

These factors may influence the dynamics and relevance of the process moving forward.

Conclusion

While the Astana Process has achieved modest success in reducing violence and providing a diplomatic platform, it has fallen short of its lofty goal of ending the Syrian conflict. The process remains active and recognized by the international community for its impact, but its ability to bring lasting peace to Syria remains uncertain. As it enters its seventh year, the Astana Process faces the challenge of addressing core political issues while balancing the interests of its guarantor states and the Syrian people