Challenges in Israel - Lebanon cease-fire

Introduction

The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, effective since November 27, 2024, faces several significant challenges that could impact its durability and effectiveness.

Enforcement Difficulties:

UNIFIL’s Limitations

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has historically struggled to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament along the Israeli border. Despite its mandate, UNIFIL has been unable to enforce a buffer zone between Israel and Hezbollah effectively. Analysts express skepticism about UNIFIL’s capacity to uphold the current ceasefire terms.

Lebanese Army’s Role

The ceasefire agreement tasks the Lebanese military with securing the border to prevent Hezbollah’s return. However, the Lebanese army has previously been ineffective in stopping Hezbollah’s buildup or Israeli military responses, raising concerns about its ability to enforce the ceasefire.

Monitoring and Compliance

International Oversight:

The agreement includes an international committee, involving UN peacekeepers, to monitor compliance. However, the effectiveness of this mechanism is uncertain, given past challenges in enforcing similar agreements.

US Involvement

The United States’ role in monitoring potential violations adds complexity, as its historical support for Israel may lead to perceptions of bias, potentially undermining the monitoring process’s credibility.

Political and Public Sentiment:

Israeli Skepticism

Many Israelis express anger and skepticism toward the ceasefire, doubting its ability to provide lasting security. Evacuees from border towns are hesitant to return, fearing renewed attacks.

Hezbollah’s Compliance

The ceasefire requires Hezbollah to withdraw heavy weaponry from southern Lebanon. However, doubts persist about Hezbollah’s willingness to comply fully, given its history of rearming and maintaining a military presence in the area.

Regional Dynamics

Iran’s Influence

As a key supporter of Hezbollah, Iran’s stance significantly impacts the ceasefire’s sustainability. While Iran has welcomed the ceasefire, its future actions could influence Hezbollah’s adherence to the agreement.

Broader Middle East Tensions

Ongoing conflicts in Gaza and tensions with Iran suggest that regional stability remains fragile. The ceasefire does not address these broader issues, which could indirectly affect its longevity.

Conclusion

In summary, while the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah offers a temporary respite, its success depends on effective enforcement, unbiased monitoring, political commitment, and regional stability. Addressing these challenges is crucial to achieving lasting peace in the region.