Gaza’s Fragile Calm Teeters as Israel Balks at Full Pullout: A Comprehensive Analysis of Ceasefire Dynamics and Regional Implications

Introduction

The recent ceasefire in Gaza, brokered through intense international mediation, remains precariously balanced as Israel refuses to entirely withdraw from strategic territories, notably the Philadelphi Corridor and Netzarim Corridor.

This article synthesizes the current standoff's geopolitical, military, and humanitarian dimensions, drawing on recent developments up to February 2025.

Key findings reveal that while the ceasefire has temporarily halted large-scale violence, Israel’s insistence on maintaining buffer zones and delayed troop withdrawals from southern Lebanon and Gaza threatens to reignite conflict.

Hamas’ demand for a permanent ceasefire and complete Israeli withdrawal clashes with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s commitment to dismantling the group’s governance capabilities.

Regional stakeholders, including Egypt, Qatar, and Iran, play divergent roles in shaping the trajectory of negotiations. At the same time, U.S. diplomacy under President Donald Trump faces scrutiny over its alignment with Israeli security objectives.

The situation underscores the fragility of postwar stabilization efforts and the urgent need for multilateral frameworks to address underlying grievances.

Geopolitical Landscape of the Gaza Ceasefire

The Ceasefire Agreement and Its Contested Terms

The January 2025 ceasefire agreement, mediated by Qatar, Egypt, and the United States, outlined a phased approach to de-escalation.

Phase one mandated Israel’s withdrawal from populated areas of Gaza and the release of 33 hostages in exchange for 1,900 Palestinian prisoners. However, disputes over the Philadelphia Corridor—a narrow strip along Gaza’s border with Egypt—have stalled progress. Israel argues that maintaining control of this corridor is essential to prevent weapon smuggling by Hamas, while Hamas and Egypt view it as a violation of sovereignty.

The corridor’s strategic importance stems from its historical role as a conduit for underground tunnels used to bypass Israel’s blockade.

Netanyahu’s government has further complicated negotiations by linking complete withdrawal to dismantling Hamas’ military infrastructure, a condition absent from the original agreement.

This unilateral reinterpretation has drawn criticism from Arab mediators and the Biden administration, which initially endorsed the deal.

The Israeli Prime Minister’s alignment with Trump’s proposal to relocate Gaza’s population and redevelop the territory as a tourist hub has further alienated regional partners.

Internal Israeli Politics and Coalition Pressures

Domestic political dynamics in Israel significantly influence ceasefire compliance.

Far-right coalition members, including Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, threaten to withdraw support if Netanyahu concedes to Hamas’ demands for a permanent truce.

Religious Zionism MK Zvi Sukkot has openly opposed prisoner exchanges, framing them as concessions to terrorism.

Meanwhile, centrist factions and hostage families advocate for prioritizing the return of captives over military objectives, creating a polarized policymaking environment.

Netanyahu’s reliance on ultra-nationalist parties necessitates rhetorical posturing, such as vowing to “avenge” the deaths of hostages like the Bibas family, even as behind-the-scenes negotiations continue.

This duality—public hardline stances versus private diplomatic flexibility—has eroded trust among mediators and prolonged uncertainty.

Military Dynamics and Strategic Withdrawals

Partial Pullouts and Buffer Zones

Israel’s withdrawal from Khan Younis in April 2024 and the Netzarim Corridor in February 2025 exemplify a strategy of tactical retrenchment rather than complete disengagement. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) retain control over Gaza’s coastline, airspace, and key border crossings, enabling rapid reentry if hostilities resume.

Military analysts interpret these moves as efforts to mitigate international condemnation while preserving operational flexibility.

The Netzarim Corridor, which bisects Gaza, serves dual purposes: it impedes Hamas’ north-south mobility and facilitates Israel’s surveillance of humanitarian aid distribution.

However, its partial opening under U.S. and Egyptian monitoring has done little to alleviate the suffering of displaced Palestinians, over 700,000 of whom remain unable to return home.

Hezbollah and the Northern Front

Parallel tensions with Hezbollah in Lebanon highlight the interconnectedness of regional conflicts.

Despite a November 2024 ceasefire agreement mandating Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon within 60 days, troops remain stationed at five strategic outposts.

Hezbollah’s retaliatory strikes following the assassination of commander Fuad Shukr underscore the volatility of this front. Iran’s diminished capacity to arm Hezbollah, due to Syria’s political realignment, has temporarily reduced escalation risks but not eliminated them.

Humanitarian Crisis and Reconstruction Challenges

Immediate Relief and Long-Term Devastation

The ceasefire has enabled limited aid delivery, yet Gaza’s infrastructure remains in ruins. The UN estimates that two-thirds of buildings are damaged or destroyed, with reconstruction costs exceeding $30 billion.

Over 48,000 Palestinian deaths and widespread displacement have created a generational trauma, exacerbated by Israel’s restrictions on material imports like steel and cement.

Egypt’s partial reopening of the Rafah crossing and U.S.-led efforts to establish a maritime aid corridor offer minimal respite. However, Hamas’ continued governance complicates coordination with international agencies, as donors hesitate to fund projects perceived as legitimizing the group.

Psychological Toll and Hostage Negotiations

For Israeli communities near Gaza, the ceasefire does not assure long-term security. The traumatic aftermath of Hamas’ October 2023 attack, which killed 1,200 Israelis, lingers in public consciousness.

The phased release of hostages has reopened wounds for families like the Bibases, whose tragic fate—a mother and children killed in captivity—symbolizes the human cost of protracted conflict.

Hamas’ demand for the release of high-profile prisoners, including Marwan Barghouti, tests Israel’s willingness to compromise. Mediators argue that excluding such figures risks derailing negotiations, but Netanyahu’s coalition rejects any concessions seen as rewarding violence.

Regional Diplomacy and External Actors

U.S. Mediation Under Trump and Biden

The Trump administration’s unequivocal support for Israel’s security objectives, including buffer zones and population relocation, contrasts with Biden’s earlier emphasis on humanitarian pauses.

Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, has prioritized economic redevelopment over political solutions, envisioning Gaza as a “tourist destination” devoid of Palestinians. This vision, however, lacks Arab backing and exacerbates Palestinian distrust.

Biden’s behind-the-scenes diplomacy, particularly in pressuring Qatar to isolate Hamas financially, highlights the fragmented U.S. approach. The administration’s reluctance to publicly oppose Trump-era policies reflects broader political constraints in an election year.

Egypt and Qatar’s Balancing Act

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi faces mounting pressure to stabilize Gaza while avoiding perceptions of complicity with Israeli occupation.

Qatar’s financial backing of Hamas, aimed at maintaining leverage, risks alienating Gulf partners like Saudi Arabia, which seeks to normalize relations with Israel.

Iran’s call for a unified Arab stance against Israel communicated through President Masoud Pezeshkian’s dialogue with France’s Macron, underscores Tehran’s intent to exploit regional divisions.

However, Arab leaders’ focus on postwar reconstruction and governance reform signals a pragmatic shift from Iran’s confrontational agenda.

Future Prospects and Recommendations

Pathways to Sustained Calm

The ceasefire’s longevity hinges on addressing core grievances: Israel’s demand for security guarantees and Hamas’ insistence on sovereignty.

A potential compromise involves phased Israeli withdrawals contingent on Hamas demilitarization, monitored by a multinational force. However, Netanyahu’s rejection of Palestinian statehood and Hamas’ ideological commitment to armed resistance render this unlikely.

International Accountability and Justice

The International Criminal Court’s (ICC) ongoing investigations into alleged war crimes by both sides could incentivize compliance with international law.

Prosecuting violations of the ceasefire terms, such as weapon smuggling or targeted assassinations, may deter breaches but requires unanimous Security Council support.

Conclusion

A Fragile Equilibrium

Gaza’s fragile calm teeters on a knife’s edge, vulnerable to miscalculations by any party. Israel’s partial pullouts and buffer zones, while tactically prudent, risk perpetuating cycles of violence.

Sustainable peace demands courageous leadership that transcends zero-sum narratives and prioritizes human security over territorial control.

The international community must recalibrate its approach, balancing immediate humanitarian relief with long-term investments in governance and reconciliation. Through such holistic efforts, Gaza’s ceasefire can evolve from a temporary pause into a foundation for enduring stability.