The Afghan Refugee Crisis in Pakistan: Causes, Implications, and Regional Consequences

Introduction

The forced expulsion of approximately 1 million Afghan refugees from Pakistan by March 31, 2025, marks a pivotal moment in South Asia’s protracted humanitarian and geopolitical landscape.

This crisis, rooted in decades of conflict, shifting political alliances, and economic strain, has escalated due to Pakistan’s hardening stance against undocumented migrants and its deteriorating relations with Afghanistan’s Taliban government.

With over 3.7 million Afghans residing in Pakistan—1.7 million undocumented and 1.3 million holding Proof of Registration (PoR) cards—the mass deportations threaten to exacerbate Afghanistan’s humanitarian collapse while straining Pakistan’s social fabric and international standing.

The expulsion order, which targets Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) holders and undocumented individuals first, reflects Islamabad’s security-driven agenda, economic pressures, and frustration with Kabul’s alleged support for cross-border terrorism.

For Afghanistan, the influx of returnees into a nation already grappling with drought, aid cuts, and Taliban governance risks deepening instability and human suffering.

Historical Context of Afghan Migration to Pakistan

Waves of Displacement Since 1979

The Afghan refugee presence in Pakistan originated with the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, triggering a mass exodus that peaked at 3.3 million by 1985.

Subsequent waves followed the U.S.-led invasion in 2001 and the Taliban’s return to power in 2021, with 600,000 Afghans fleeing to Pakistan post-2021 alone.

Over 75% of these refugees are women, children, or elderly individuals, many of whom have lived in Pakistan for generations without legal status.

Pakistan’s initial hospitality, fueled by Cold War alliances with Afghan mujahideen, gradually eroded due to economic strain and security concerns, with refugee camps becoming linked to drug trafficking and militant recruitment.

Legal Frameworks and Shifting Policies

Pakistan, not a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, has historically managed Afghan refugees through ad hoc arrangements.

The 2006 Proof of Registration (PoR) system provided temporary legal status to 1.3 million Afghans, while the 2017 Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) offered limited rights to 880,000 others.

However, these measures failed to address long-term integration, leaving refugees vulnerable to exploitation and periodic crackdowns.

The current expulsion policy—phased between March 31 (ACC holders) and June 30, 2025 (PoR holders)—signals a definitive break from this ambivalent approach.

Factors Driving the 2025 Expulsion Crisis

Security Concerns and Cross-Border Tensions

Pakistan attributes its crackdown to a 60% surge in Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attacks since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover, with 2,267 fatalities reported. Islamabad accuses Kabul of harboring TTP militants despite having supported the Taliban’s rise to power.

Retaliatory measures, including border closures and trade restrictions, failed to curb violence, prompting the deportation strategy as leverage. Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti framed the expulsions as necessary to “put our house in order,” alleging Afghan involvement in terrorism and illicit economies.

Economic Pressures and Xenophobic Narratives

Hosting 3.7 million Afghans has cost Pakistan an estimated $200 billion since 1979, straining infrastructure and public services. With inflation at 31.4% and a $23 billion IMF bailout in 2023, the caretaker government has scapegoated refugees for job losses and resource shortages.

Surveys reveal widespread public support for deportations, with 62% of Pakistanis blaming Afghans for crime and unemployment.

This narrative ignores refugees’ economic contributions—many work in agriculture, construction, and waste management—but aligns with the military establishment’s efforts to divert attention from governance failures.

Political Motivations and Regional Dynamics

The expulsion policy coincides with Pakistan’s February 2025 elections, where the military-backed interim government seeks to bolster nationalist credentials.

Simultaneously, Islamabad aims to pressure the Taliban into curbing TTP activities by weaponizing refugee repatriation, mirroring tactics used by Iran and Turkey against Syrian refugees.

However, the Taliban’s refusal to acknowledge TTP sanctuaries has entrenched a cycle of retaliation, including recent cross-border skirmishes and drone strikes.

Implications for Pakistan

Short-Term Economic Disruptions

The abrupt departure of Afghan labor has disrupted key sectors. In Lahore’s markets, 40% of daily wage workers were Afghans, leading to labor shortages and inflated wages.

The transportation sector faces similar strains, with 15,000 Afghan truckers operating along the Karachi-Peshawar corridor. While some Pakistanis welcome reduced competition, economists warn of inflationary pressures and reduced remittances from Afghan-run businesses.

Security Paradox

Paradoxically, expulsions may exacerbate insecurity. Former refugees stripped of assets often turn to smuggling or militancy for survival. The TTP has capitalized on returnee grievances, recruiting 3,000 deportees in 2024 alone.

Additionally, Pakistan’s border regions face heightened instability as deportees clash with local communities over scarce resources.

International Repercussions

The UNHCR and IOM have condemned the policy as violating non-refoulement principles, with UN Women highlighting risks to 320,000 Afghan women and girls.

The U.S. has paused $300 million in aid while the EU is considering trade sanctions, jeopardizing Pakistan’s GSP+ status. Conversely, China and Saudi Arabia tacitly support the crackdown, reflecting geopolitical alignments against Islamic extremism.

Consequences for Afghanistan

Humanitarian Catastrophe

Over 400,000 returnees since November 2023 face dire conditions: 80% lack shelter, and 60% experience acute malnutrition.

In Nangarhar province, 22,000 families inhabit makeshift camps without sanitation, triggering cholera outbreaks.

The World Food Programme reports a 45% funding shortfall, which will halve rations for 15 million food-insecure Afghans.

Social and Gender-Specific Impacts

Taliban restrictions on female employment and education disproportionately affect returnees. Over 150,000 school-age girls among deportees are barred from classrooms, while 42% of women-headed households resort to begging or child labor.

UN Women notes a 200% increase in gender-based violence cases in border areas since 2023, with limited access to healthcare.

Political Challenges for the Taliban

The influx undermines the Taliban’s narrative of a “peaceful Islamic Emirate.” Protests in Kabul and Herat demand resettlement aid, while factional rivalries erupt over control of returnee camps.

The regime’s inability to manage the crisis has eroded its legitimacy, with only 12% of Afghans expressing confidence in its governance.

International Responses and Failures

Inadequate Resettlement Mechanisms

Despite 82,000 Afghans in Pakistan being eligible for U.S. resettlement, bureaucratic delays leave 68% stranded beyond the March 31 deadline.

Canada and Germany have pledged to admit 15,000 refugees collectively but lack processing capacity in Pakistan. The UNHCR’s $502 million appeal for Afghanistan remains 78% unfunded, reflecting donor fatigue.

Regional Complicity

Iran and Turkey have reinforced borders to block Afghan inflows, while Central Asian states demand Russian security guarantees before considering resettlement.

This regional isolationism leaves Pakistan as the sole actor bearing both the costs and blame for the crisis.

Conclusion

A Crisis With No Endgame

Pakistan’s expulsion policy, while domestically popular, risks destabilizing the region and entrenching cycles of poverty and extremism.

For Afghanistan, the returnee influx strains a collapsing economy and emboldens anti-Taliban resistance. International actors must urgently address resettlement bottlenecks and increase aid to prevent mass starvation.

However, lasting solutions require Pakistan and the Taliban to negotiate security guarantees and refugee protections—a prospect dimmed by mutual distrust.

As the March 31 deadline passes, the world witnesses a refugee crisis and the unraveling of 40 years of failed geopolitical gambits in South Asia.