Long-Term Implications of Israel’s Annexation Plans in Gaza: A Multidimensional Analysis

Introduction

The Israeli government’s explicit threats to annex portions of the Gaza Strip, articulated by Defense Minister Israel Katz in March 2025, represents a strategic escalation with profound consequences for regional stability, international law, and Palestinian sovereignty.

The publication synthesizes evidence from recent developments, legal analyses, and socioeconomic assessments to evaluate the enduring ramifications of these plans.

Legal and Geopolitical Repercussions

Violation of International Law

Israel’s annexation of occupied territories constitutes a flagrant breach of international law, as reaffirmed by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in its July 2024 Advisory Opinion. The ICJ concluded that Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories is unlawful, emphasizing the inadmissibility of territorial acquisition by force under the UN Charter.

Annexation would exacerbate Israel’s diplomatic isolation, inviting potential sanctions and undermining its legitimacy in multilateral forums. The UN Human Rights Office has warned that annexation efforts in the West Bank and Gaza “jeopardize the foundations of the international legal order” and risk triggering accountability mechanisms, including referrals to the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Erosion of the Two-State Solution

Annexation would effectively dismantle the territorial continuity necessary for a viable Palestinian state. The UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) projects that annexation would fragment Gaza and the West Bank, rendering the two-state framework obsolete.

Bezalel Smotrich, Israel’s Finance Minister, has openly declared his intent to “fight against the dangerous idea of a Palestinian state,” aligning with far-right coalition partners who view annexation as a means to cement Israeli control over historic Palestine.

This policy shift has drawn condemnation from Arab states, with Jordan’s Foreign Ministry warning that annexation would “open the door to the perpetual conflict.”

Humanitarian and Socioeconomic Collapse

Forced Displacement and Demographic Engineering

Human Rights Watch documents Israel’s systematic use of forced displacement as a tool of demographic control. Since October 2023, over 1.95 million Gazans—85% of the population—have been displaced, with 743,281 expected to remain homeless post-conflict.

Annexation would institutionalize this displacement, as evidenced by Katz’s threat to “relocate Gaza’s population southward” and Smotrich’s calls to “squeeze Palestinians into the smallest areas possible.”

The UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) reports that 93% of Gaza’s schools and universities have been destroyed, crippling educational infrastructure for future generations.

Economic Annexation and Dependency

The 1994 Paris Protocol already subjugates the Palestinian economy to Israeli control over borders, tariffs, and tax revenues. Annexation would formalize this dependency, exacerbating Gaza’s GDP contraction (projected at 35.1% in 2024) and unemployment rates (49.9%).

The World Bank estimates that rebuilding Gaza’s housing stock alone could take until 2040, requiring a $50 billion Marshall Plan-scale investment. However, Israel’s blockade on construction materials and its destruction of 80% of commercial facilities render recovery impossible without political transformation.

Environmental and Public Health Catastrophes

Irreversible Ecological Damage

The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) identifies unprecedented environmental degradation in Gaza, including soil contamination from munitions, groundwater pollution from untreated sewage, and air quality hazards from debris containing asbestos and heavy metals.

Over 39 million tonnes of conflict debris—equivalent to 107 kg per square meter—pose long-term risks of cancer, respiratory illnesses, and congenital disabilities.

The destruction of 67% of water and sanitation infrastructure has precipitated a polio outbreak, with 24 environmental samples testing positive for the virus as of February 2025.

Collapse of Healthcare Systems

Gaza’s healthcare system, already crippled by a 16-year blockade, has been decimated by targeted strikes on hospitals and clinics. Only 12 of 36 hospitals remain partially functional, with medical supplies depleted to 5% of pre-war levels.

The WHO reports that trauma injuries account for 60% of morbidity, while malnutrition affects 90% of children under five. Annexation would perpetuate this crisis by entrenching restrictions on aid and reconstruction.

Regional Security and Diplomatic Fallout

Escalation of Armed Resistance

Annexation risks catalyzing a third intifada, with Palestinian factions likely to intensify attacks against Israeli military and civilian targets.

The Jordanian government warns that annexation could “push armed factions to escalate operations,” mirroring the surge in violence during the 2025 West Bank offensive.

Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias may exploit the instability to launch cross-border strikes, drawing Lebanon and Syria into broader conflict.

Strain on U.S.-Israel Relations

While the Biden administration has criticized annexation, domestic political constraints—particularly pressure from AIPAC and evangelical voters—limit substantive policy shifts.

The Trump administration’s 2025 proposal to fast-track $4 billion in military aid underscores the bipartisan commitment to Israel’s security, even as annexation alienates European and Global South allies.

Historian Walter Hixson notes that Congress remains “held hostage by pro-Israel lobbies,” ensuring continued arms transfers despite mounting international censure.

Conclusion

A Crossroads for International Order

Israel’s annexation plans threaten to normalize the violation of territorial integrity as a tool of statecraft, setting a perilous precedent for conflicts worldwide.

The ICJ’s rulings and UN resolutions provide a legal framework for countering annexation, but enforcement hinges on political will—particularly from the U.S. and EU.

Without robust sanctions, aid conditionality, and recognition of Palestinian statehood, annexation will entrench apartheid-like conditions, destabilize the Middle East, and erode the postwar international order.

As UN High Commissioner Volker Türk asserts, “This is the moment for voices of reason to prevail.” The alternative is a future defined by perpetual conflict, humanitarian despair, and the collapse of multilateralism.