The 2025 North American Trade Disputes: Tensions Between Trump and US Neighbors

Introduction

President Donald Trump’s recent trade policies and rhetoric toward Canada and Mexico have created significant tensions with America’s closest neighbors, leading to accusations of authoritarianism and a surge of nationalist sentiment in both countries.

While Trump has implemented steep tariffs citing national security concerns, leaders in Canada and Mexico have responded with defiance, counter-tariffs, and rhetoric that has resonated strongly with their citizens.

Trump’s Tariff Policy and Its Justifications

In early 2025, President Trump imposed comprehensive tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, citing concerns about drug trafficking, illegal immigration, and trade imbalances.

On March 4, 2025, Trump implemented 25% tariffs on virtually all imports from both countries, with some energy products from Canada taxed at 10%.

These actions were taken under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), with the White House claiming they were necessary to combat “the extraordinary threat to U.S. national security.”

Trump asserted that both Canada and Mexico had “failed to adequately address” dangerous cartel activity and the influx of drugs like fentanyl.

The presidential order claimed that Mexican drug trafficking organizations operate “unhindered” due to an “intolerable relationship with the government of Mexico.”

On March 6, Trump delayed tariffs on goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) until April 2, which accounts for approximately 50% of imports from Mexico and 62% from Canada.

The “51st State” Rhetoric

Perhaps most controversially, Trump has repeatedly suggested that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state. During a conversation with journalists in the Oval Office, Trump began by professing his fondness for Canadians before suggesting that Canada should not function as an independent nation.

“Canada only functions as a state,” Trump asserted. “We don’t require anything they possess. As a state, it would rank among the finest states anywhere. This would be the most remarkable country, visually”. This annexation rhetoric has particularly inflamed tensions with Canada.

Rhetoric That Has Drawn Fascism Comparisons

The characterization of Trump as having fascist tendencies stems from several aspects of his rhetoric and governance style that scholars and critics have highlighted.

Dehumanizing Language

Trump has repeatedly used language that dehumanizes certain groups, particularly immigrants. He has stated that immigrants are the “enemy from within” who are ruining the “fabric” of the country and has claimed that some immigrants are “not people,” “not humans,” and “animals.”

At rallies, Trump has stated that undocumented immigrants will “rape, pillage, thieve, plunder and kill” American citizens, that they are “stone-cold killers,” “monsters,” “vile animals,” “savages,” and “predators.” Since the fall of 2023, Trump has repeatedly said that undocumented immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country,” which has been compared to language echoing that of white supremacists and Adolf Hitler’s “Mein Kampf.”

“Blood and Soil” Rhetoric

Scholars have identified Trump’s rhetoric as containing elements of nationalism, enforcement of social hierarchies, hatred towards social minority groups, opposition to liberalism, and other elements associated with historical fascism. According to political scientist Roger Griffin, fascism is an authoritarian, “revolutionary form of extreme nationalism” that often incorporates racism, xenophobia, male chauvinism, and a culture of violence.

Historical Comparisons

This is not the first time Trump has faced such comparisons. In 2016, then-Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto explicitly compared Trump’s rhetoric to that of Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini, saying Trump offered “straightforward, simple solutions to problems that are obviously not that easy to solve.”

Peña Nieto added, “That’s how Mussolini got in, that’s how Hitler got in, they took advantage of a situation, a problem perhaps, which humanity was going through at the time, after an economic crisis.”

How Canada and Mexico Have Responded

Canada and Mexico have responded forcefully to Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric, refusing to comply with his demands and implementing retaliatory measures.

Canadian Response

Canada immediately imposed retaliatory 25% tariffs on CA$30 billion (US$20.6 billion) of U.S. goods on March 4, with plans to expand these tariffs to an additional CA$125 billion (US$86 billion) of U.S. goods on March 25.

Ex Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had explicitly rejected Trump’s “51st state” suggestion, saying that Trump sought to impose tariffs because he wished for “a total collapse of the Canadian economy” to “make it easier” for the U.S. to annex Canada.

Trudeau had taken a firm stance, declaring that Canada would “not back down from a fight.” After a phone call with Trump, which media reports described as “colorful” and containing profane language, Trudeau told reporters that a trade war between the two allies was likely for the foreseeable future.

Mark Carney, the new Canadian PM has taken a hard stance towards Trump tariff by imposing retaliatory tariff.

Mexican Response

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has similarly stood firm against Trump’s tariffs, though with a slightly different approach. After initial negotiations that led to a one-month delay in tariffs, Mexico agreed to send 10,000 troops from the Mexican National Guard to the border to prevent drug trafficking.

Despite this concession, when Trump ultimately imposed the tariffs on March 4, Sheinbaum announced that Mexico would implement its countermeasures, including retaliatory tariffs.

Sheinbaum has maintained a dialogue with Trump, describing one call as “excellent and respectful” and noting that the two countries would work together on specific issues like stemming the flow of fentanyl and curbing gun trafficking.

Political Consequences Within Canada and Mexico

Interestingly, Trump’s aggressive trade policies and rhetoric have boosted the popularity of leaders in Canada and Mexico.

Surge in Mexican Presidential Approval

President Claudia Sheinbaum’s approval ratings have reached an extraordinary 85%, with just 15% disapproving – the highest approval rating of any Mexican president in the last three decades, according to a poll from El Financiero conducted in February 2025.

Her defiant stance against Trump’s tariffs has resonated strongly with Mexican citizens.

Canadian Political Transformation

In Canada, the ruling Liberal Party has experienced a remarkable reversal of fortune. Before the trade tensions, they hadn’t led in national polls since February 2021.

According to a recent Ipsos survey, they lead the opposition Conservatives, 38% to 36%. The Liberal Party wiped out a 26-point Conservative Party lead within six weeks, mainly attributable to their response to Trump’s tariffs and annexation rhetoric.

Former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson observed: “A wave of nationalism has swept the country that I’ve never seen before.”

Canadian politicians across the political spectrum have been tapping into this growing nationalist sentiment, which has dramatically reshaped the country’s political landscape.

The Broader Implications for North American Relations

The tariff battle and harsh rhetoric seriously affect the economic and diplomatic relationships between these longtime allies and trading partners.

Economic Disruption

The onset of tariffs led to stock market declines, especially for retailers and car manufacturers. Economists have warned that the tariffs would likely disrupt trade between the three countries, upending supply chains and increasing consumer prices across North America.

Both Canada and Mexico have claimed that U.S. tariffs violate the USMCA, a free trade agreement ratified by the three countries in 2020 during Trump’s first presidency. This raises questions about the future of this agreement and the overall trade relationship.

Shifting Diplomatic Tone

The diplomatic tone between the three nations has sharply deteriorated. A senior State Department official noted “a need to separate policy” from cooperation on affairs, which is “challenging.”

The same official acknowledged that there is “widespread agreement that we cannot allow genuine disagreements on certain matters to hinder our collaboration on areas of consensus, particularly foreign policy.”

Conclusion

The current tensions between the United States and its North American neighbors represent a significant shift in regional relations.

Trump’s tariff policies, annexation rhetoric, and dehumanizing language have prompted strong nationalist reactions in both Canada and Mexico, boosting the popularity of their leaders who have taken firm stands against these measures.

The characterizations of Trump as having fascist tendencies stem from his rhetoric about immigrants, his nationalist policies, and his confrontational approach to international relations, which some scholars and political figures have compared to historical fascist leaders.

While the ultimate resolution of these trade disputes remains uncertain, what is clear is that Trump’s approach has galvanized a new sense of national identity in Canada and Mexico that may permanently alter the North American political landscape.