Israel's Strategic Role in Syria: Navigating the Challenges of 2025 and Beyond

Introduction

Israel opinion

Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, the region has undergone significant upheaval that has impacted Israel's policies and actions in Syria.

These events include the fall of Assad’s regime, the rise of Ahmad al-Sharaa to power, the Alawite revolt, and Israel's growing involvement in southern Syria.

The Fall of Assad’s Regime and the Rise of the New Government

In December 2024, after years of civil war, Bashar al-Assad's regime collapsed.

The rebel group "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS) took control and established a temporary government under Ahmad al-Sharaa.

The new government pledged to form an inclusive administration by March 2025, but faced numerous challenges, including national cohesion and state reconstruction.

The Alawite Revolt and Its Suppression

In March 2025, a revolt erupted among the Alawite sect, which had been associated with Assad's former regime. The uprising began on March 6, with an attack on a police patrol by armed Alawite fighters, leading to heavy clashes.

The new regime responded harshly, and during the suppression, more than 1,300 people were killed, including at least 830 civilians, among them women and children.

Israel's Involvement in Southern Syria

Following the fall of Assad’s regime and the ensuing chaos, Israel decided to take action to protect its northern borders. In January 2025, Defense Minister Israel Katz announced that IDF forces would remain in southern Syrian territory indefinitely to ensure the security of the Golan Heights and northern Israeli settlements.

Israeli forces positioned themselves at strategic points, including Mount Hermon, and established a buffer zone to prevent hostile forces from infiltrating.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that Israel would not allow Syrian forces, including the new Syrian army and rebel groups, to enter the area south of Damascus, demanding the demilitarization of southern Syria. In addition, he committed to protecting the Druze minority in the region.

International Reactions and Future Challenges

Israel’s involvement in southern Syria has been criticized by neighboring countries, including Turkey and Egypt, who accused Israel of exploiting the situation to occupy additional territories.

The United Nations expressed concern that Israeli actions could hinder the political transition process in Syria.

The situation in Syria remains complex, with fears of a new civil war. The new government faces internal challenges, including sectarian uprisings, and external pressures from regional countries and stakeholders.

Israel, for its part, continues to monitor developments and acts to ensure its security while maintaining a cautious involvement in Syria.

In conclusion, Israel’s role in Syria in 2025 is defined by the need to protect its borders and citizens' security, while dealing with a changing and complex regional reality.

Israel's Role in Syria Since the Fall of Assad's Regime

Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in December 2024, Israel has increased its activity in Syria to protect its security and prevent the establishment of hostile forces along its northern border.

Meanwhile, it is dealing with the challenges posed by the rise of Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, the leader of the "Hay'atTahrir al-Sham" (HTS) organization, who has become a central figure in the new Syrian government.

Israel's Activity in Syria Since the Fall of Assad’s Regime

Following the fall of Assad’s regime, Israel acted quickly to ensure its security

Airstrikes

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Israel carried out 420 airstrikes against targets in Syria since the fall of Assad's regime, aimed at preventing the transfer of advanced weapons to hostile organizations and disrupting their establishment in the region.

Control of Territory

IDF forces entered southern Syrian territory, including the Syrian Golan Heights, to create a buffer zone and protect the Golan and Galilee settlements. Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that IDF forces would remain in the security zones and at Mount Hermon to protect the Golan and Galilee settlements.

Dealing with al-Sharaa’s Rule

Al-Sharaa, the leader of HTS, became a key figure in Syria’s government following Assad’s fall. In response to Israeli concerns, Al-Sharaa stated that the situation in Syria, which has been exhausted from years of fighting, does not allow for new conflicts, and that the priority is reconstruction and stability.

Israel’s Future Role in Syria

Israel continues to monitor developments in Syria and acts to ensure its security:

Maintaining Buffer Zones

Israel plans to continue holding security zones in southern Syria to prevent the infiltration of hostile forces into its territory.

Preventing Terrorist Organization Establishment

Israel will continue to act to thwart attempts by terrorist organizations, such as Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, to exploit Syria’s instability to harm Israel.

International Cooperation

Israel is working in coordination with other countries, including the United States, to formulate a joint policy for addressing the challenges in Syria.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Israel continues to act decisively to ensure its security in light of the developments in Syria, adapting to the evolving realities on the ground.

Forecast for Israel's Role in Syria for the Coming Years

Experts and analysts have predicted that Israel will maintain its significant military presence in Syria for the foreseeable future.

This ongoing involvement will primarily focus on ensuring the security of Israel's northern borders, preventing the entrenchment of terrorist organizations, and closely monitoring the Syrian regime's attempts to stabilize and control its territory.

The main challenges Israel will face are the unpredictability of the situation in Syria, especially in relation to the evolving power of groups like HTS, and the need for cautious interaction with regional actors.

While some experts suggest that Israel might eventually reduce its military presence as Syria stabilizes, others predict that Israel will need to maintain its defensive posture for several more years, especially given the volatile nature of the region and ongoing threats from Iran and Hezbollah.

Furthermore, Israel will continue to work with international partners to navigate the complex dynamics of Syria's reconstruction and political transition.