The World Trump Wants: American Power in the New Age of Nationalism

Introduction

The foreign policy vision of Donald Trump’s second term represents a decisive break from post-Cold War internationalism, prioritizing transactional alliances, economic nationalism, and a recalibration of U.S. engagement with pivotal regions.

This article analyzes the implications of Trump’s “America First” doctrine for Europe, China, Russia, Turkey, and India, exploring how his nationalist agenda reshapes security architectures, trade dynamics, and ideological alignments in an era of resurgent great-power competition.

Europe

Transactional Alliances and the Fracturing of Transatlantic Trust

NATO Burden-Sharing as Financial Negotiation

Trump’s skepticism of NATO has transformed the alliance into a ledger of financial obligations rather than a collective security framework.

Reiterating demands for member states to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP—far exceeding the current 2% target—Trump has threatened unilateral troop withdrawals from Germany and floated conditional support for Article 5 commitments.

This transactional posture has accelerated European efforts to achieve “strategic autonomy,” with German leaders like Friedrich Merz advocating for military independence from the U.S. Despite environmental concerns, the European Union’s push to expand liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the U.S. underscores the continent’s pragmatic concessions to mitigate economic retaliation.

Tariffs and the Populist Dilemma

Proposed 25% tariffs on EU automotive and pharmaceutical exports risk destabilizing key industries, threatening a €260 billion reduction in European GDP.

Far-right parties like France’s National Rally and Italy’s Brothers of Italy face internal tensions. While ideologically aligned with Trump’s anti-immigration and climate-skeptic rhetoric, their working-class constituencies bear the brunt of retaliatory trade measures.

This dissonance reveals the fragility of transatlantic populist solidarity as domestic electoral calculus clashes with Trump’s zero-sum economic nationalism.

The Erosion of Democratic Norms

Trump’s admiration for leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has emboldened illiberal reforms across Eastern Europe, with Poland and Serbia curtailing judicial independence and media freedoms under the guise of “national sovereignty.”

Western European centrist governments, meanwhile, grapple with declining U.S. security guarantees, prompting unprecedented defense coordination through initiatives like the European Intervention Initiative (EI2).

China: Trade Wars and the Contest for Global Influence

Escalating Economic Confrontation

The Trump administration’s expansion of tariffs to $450 billion of Chinese goods—targeting semiconductors, rare earth minerals, and green technology—aims to decouple critical supply chains and revive U.S. manufacturing.

However, China’s retaliatory measures against agricultural exports have exacerbated rural discontent in Trump’s base, undermining the political gains of his protectionist agenda. Beijing’s “dual circulation” strategy, emphasizing domestic consumption and technological self-sufficiency, has accelerated amid U.S. sanctions, with Huawei and SMIC achieving breakthroughs in 5-nanometer chip production.

Taiwan and the South China Sea

Trump’s ambiguous stance on Taiwan—simultaneously approving advanced arms sales while privately suggesting concessions to Xi Jinping—has heightened cross-strait tensions.

Joint U.S.-Philippine naval patrols contesting China’s territorial claims in the Spratly Islands risk accidental escalation, mainly as Beijing deploys coast guard militias and anti-ship missile systems.

Meanwhile, China’s quasi-alliance with Russia, solidified through energy deals and joint military exercises, complicates U.S. efforts to isolate either power.

Belt and Road Initiative 2.0

China has rebranded its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a “green and digital” corridor, leveraging Trump’s withdrawal from climate agreements to position itself as the Global South’s sustainable development partner.

Infrastructure projects in Africa and Latin America now integrate AI-driven smart grids and renewable energy hubs, countering U.S. criticisms of debt-trap diplomacy.

Russia: Opportunistic Alignment and Strategic Disruption

The Ukraine Stalemate

Trump’s pressure on Kyiv to cede Donbas territories in exchange for a ceasefire—a move reminiscent of 19th-century territorial bargaining—has eroded Ukrainian morale and European trust.

Putin’s insistence on formal annexation of Crimea and Donetsk mirrors Trump’s transactional approach, with both leaders framing the conflict as a burdensome distraction from domestic priorities.

Unless Europe increases financial contributions, U.S. threats to withhold military aid have further fragmented NATO’s response.

Energy Dominance and Eurasian Ambitions

The completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, despite bipartisan opposition in Congress, underscores Trump’s indifference to European energy security concerns.

By prioritizing U.S. LNG exports over containing Russian influence, Trump enables Moscow to deepen energy ties with Germany, undermining EU cohesion.

Simultaneously, Russia’s Wagner Group exploits U.S. troop reductions in Africa, securing mining concessions in Mali and Burkina Faso through hybrid warfare tactics.

Syria and the Kurdish Dilemma

Trump’s approval of Turkish incursions into Kurdish-held Rojava has emboldened ethnic cleansing campaigns, with Ankara resettling Arab militias in historically Kurdish territories.

The al-Hol detention camp, housing 60,000 ISIS affiliates, faces heightened instability as Kurdish forces divert resources to counter Turkish aggression.

Despite bipartisan calls to protect Kurdish allies, Trump’s deference to Erdogan prioritizes short-term counterterrorism gains over long-term regional stability.

Turkey: Authoritarian Pragmatism in a Shifting Order

The S-400 Crisis and F-35 Fallout

Erdogan’s refusal to abandon Russian S-400 missile systems has perpetuated Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program, despite Trump’s tentative offers to reinstate Ankara in exchange for storing the defenses.

The Biden administration’s approval of F-16 sales—contingent on Sweden’s NATO accession—has temporarily eased tensions, but Erdogan’s flirtation with Su-57 purchases from Russia signals enduring mistrust of Western partners.

Syria and the Kurdish Quagmire

Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring, launched with Trump’s tacit approval, has displaced over 300,000 Kurds and enabled ISIS resurgence in detention camp breaches.

Erdogan’s demands for a 30-kilometer “safe zone” along the Syrian border clash with U.S. support for Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), creating a policy impasse.

Trump’s proposed troop withdrawals risk ceding influence to Russian and Iranian proxies, further destabilizing the region.

NATO’s Illiberal Anchor

Turkey’s veto of Nordic NATO expansion and Erdogan’s anti-Western rhetoric have strained alliance cohesion.

While Trump admires Erdogan’s “strongman” leadership, Congressional pressure to sanction Turkey over human rights abuses and Hamas ties complicates rapprochement.

The death of Fethullah Gulen has removed a longstanding bilateral irritant, but Erdogan’s crackdown on dissent—jailing 50,000 political prisoners since 2023—tests the limits of Trump’s transactional diplomacy.

INDIA

Strategic Hedging in an Age of Uncertainty

Defense Cooperation and the Quad Conundrum

India’s $3.5 billion purchase of U.S. F-35 fighters and P-8I surveillance aircraft deepens military integration, countering Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.

However, Modi’s reluctance to formally abandon non-alignment principles complicates Quad cohesion, as India resists joint naval patrols in the South China Sea.

Trump’s demands for reciprocal market access—targeting India’s digital protectionism and agricultural tariffs—risk undermining defense partnerships.

Energy Diplomacy and Climate Realpolitik

India’s commitment to triple U.S. LNG imports by 2030 aligns with Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda, reducing reliance on Russian and Iranian supplies.

However, Modi’s parallel investments in Chabahar Port and the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) underscore India’s multi-vector hedging, balancing U.S. ties with Eurasian connectivity projects.

Kashmir and Democratic Erosion

Trump’s muted response to India’s revocation of Article 370 and internet blackouts in Kashmir reflects pragmatic prioritization of counterterrorism cooperation over human rights.

This silence has emboldened Hindu nationalist factions, with BJP-led states enacting discriminatory citizenship laws targeting Muslims—a trend resonating with Trump’s domestic nativism.

Conclusion

The Paradox of Transactional Nationalism

Trump’s “America First” doctrine has reordered global power dynamics, empowering authoritarian regimes while eroding the liberal institutional framework crafted post-1945.

Europe’s push for strategic autonomy, China’s BRI expansion, Russia’s energy coercion, Turkey’s illiberal pragmatism, and India’s multi-alignment reveal a world adapting to U.S. retrenchment through fractured regionalism.

The long-term costs of this transactional approach—diminished democratic solidarity, proliferating conflicts, and unchecked climate degradation—threaten to undermine America’s structural power.

As Trump’s second term progresses, the challenge for allies and adversaries alike lies in navigating a world where short-term deals supersede shared governance and national interest is defined not by collective security but by the whims of personalist leadership.