The Erosion of Transatlantic Unity: Assessing the Impact of Trump’s Policies on US-EU Relations

Introduction

The Trump administration’s disruptive approach to foreign policy has ushered in a period of profound uncertainty for US-EU relations, challenging seven decades of post-war cooperation. We will examines the multidimensional strains emerging from security realignments, trade confrontations, technological decoupling, and ideological divergences, drawing on recent geopolitical developments and expert analyses.

Strategic Decoupling

NATO Burden-Shifting and European Defense Dilemmas

Unilateral Security Withdrawal and Its Consequences

The Trump administration has accelerated plans to reduce the US military footprint in Europe, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirming a phased withdrawal of 12,000 troops by 2026.

This decision, communicated without prior consultation at the February 2025 NATO defense ministers’ meeting, directly undermines the alliance’s integrated deterrence strategy against Russia.

European officials fear this creates a security vacuum that existing EU defense initiatives—like the 5,000-strong Rapid Deployment Capacity—cannot fill.

Trump’s transactional view of NATO was crystallized in his February 16 remark: “Why should we pay for Europe’s protection? They’ve had years to fix this”.

This aligns with the administration’s demand that NATO members increase defense spending to 2.5% of GDP, a target only 11 of 31 allies currently meet.

The pressure has forced reluctant states like Belgium and Spain to announce emergency military budget hikes, diverting funds from social programs and sparking domestic unrest.

The Ukraine Litmus Test

Diverging approaches to the Russia-Ukraine war have become the central fracture in transatlantic relations.

Trump’s February 12 call with Vladimir Putin, which excluded European leaders, outlined a ceasefire proposal involving Ukrainian territorial concessions—a plan EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called “geopolitical capitulation dressed as diplomacy”. While the UK’s £3 billion annual military aid pledge through 2030 temporarily aligns with Trump’s burden-sharing demands, it conflicts with Washington’s opposition to Ukraine’s NATO membership.

European leaders now face an impossible choice: accept a US-brokered peace that legitimizes Russian gains or risk abandonment of Western unity.

French President Emmanuel Macron captured this dilemma, stating: “We cannot outsource European security to Washington’s whims”.

Trade Wars 2.0: Tariffs, Tech, and the Battle for Economic Primacy

Escalating Protectionist Measures

The administration’s February 10 imposition of 25% tariffs on EU steel and aluminum imports—affecting €12 billion in annual trade—marks the opening salvo in a broader economic conflict.

Goldman Sachs estimates subsequent 10% across-the-board tariffs could impact 40% of EU exports to the US, totaling €190 billion annually.

European Commission retaliation plans target US tech services, exploiting the EU’s €109 billion services trade deficit through digital levies and data localization requirements.

The Green Transition as Collateral Damage

Trump’s revocation of the US-EU Clean Technology Alliance has derailed joint initiatives on battery production and rare earth mineral sourcing.

This undermines Europe’s €210 billion Green Deal Industrial Plan, which relied on transatlantic supply chain integration.

Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch warned: “We’re regressing to 20th-century protectionism as the climate crisis demands 21st-century cooperation”.

Ideological Schisms: Populist Alliances and Democratic Erosion

The Transatlantic Illiberal Axis

Trump’s alignment with European populists has created parallel governance networks bypassing traditional diplomatic channels.

Key developments include:

Hungary’s Orbán orchestrating a February 16 Budapest summit of far-right leaders to draft a “post-liberal Europe” manifesto.

Italy’s Meloni leveraging Trump’s support to stall EU sanctions on Russian LNG imports, despite 22% of Italy’s gas coming from Russia.

France’s Le Pen slashing Ukrainian aid by 33% in the 2025 budget, citing Trump’s “America First energy policy” as justification.

These alliances empower anti-EU factions, with the European Parliament’s far-right Identity and Democracy group projected to gain 25% of seats in 2026 elections.

Technological Balkanization: Chips, AI, and the New Iron Curtain

Semiconductors as Strategic Weapons

The administration’s January 25 executive order banning ASML from servicing EUV lithography machines in China has disrupted Europe’s €20 billion semiconductor equipment market.

While intended to curb Beijing’s chip ambitions, it forces European firms to choose between US and Chinese markets—a dilemma Dutch PM Mark Rutte called “economic sovereignty suicide”.

AI Governance Divide

Trump’s withdrawal from the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC) has halted joint AI ethics initiatives, with the administration pushing instead for a “tech NATO” focused on containing Chinese advancements.

This clashes with Europe’s risk-based regulatory approach, exemplified by the deadlocked AI Act negotiations over facial recognition bans.

Scientific Collaboration in the Crossfire

Research Partnership Fragmentation

The administration’s January 27 exit from the World Health Organization (WHO) has jeopardized 73 EU-US health research projects, including pandemic early-warning systems.

Horizon Europe participation by US institutions has plummeted 40% since Trump’s inauguration, with leading universities like MIT withdrawing from quantum computing consortia over export control fears.

Conclusion

The Unraveling of the Liberal Order

The cumulative impact of Trump’s policies suggests not temporary friction but structural decoupling. Three trajectories emerge:

Managed Divorce Scenario (60% Likelihood)

Gradual disentanglement across defense, trade, and tech, with ad hoc cooperation on issues like China containment.

Conflict Spiral Scenario (30%)

Escalating tariffs, secondary sanctions, and NATO paralysis leading to a 2026 transatlantic crisis over Baltic security.

Reconciliation Scenario (10%)

Post-2026 electoral shifts enabling partial restoration of cooperation frameworks.

As German Chancellor Scholz noted: “We are witnessing the end of the second American century—Europe must write its next chapter alone”. The coming years will determine whether that chapter is one of resilient autonomy or chaotic fragmentation.