What is Putin’s strategy for Ukraine -2025

Introduction

Vladimir Putin's strategy in Ukraine as of early 2025 appears to involve a combination of military, political, and economic elements aimed at achieving long-term objectives. Here’s a breakdown based on available information:

Military Strategy

Putin seems to have shifted from aiming for a quick victory to preparing for a prolonged conflict. The focus has been on wearing down Ukrainian forces through attrition, with an emphasis on small-scale assaults to probe for weaknesses and slowly gain territory. This approach is intended to outlast Ukrainian and Western resolve, betting on the possibility that support for Ukraine might wane over time.

Political Strategy

There's an effort to maintain internal support within Russia by framing the conflict in a way that justifies continued military engagement. Putin's public discourse often highlights the necessity of Russian influence over Ukraine, suggesting a strategy of patience and endurance, waiting for a change in political circumstances that might favor Russia. The narrative includes discrediting the Ukrainian government and portraying it as a puppet of the West.

Economic and Diplomatic Strategy

Putin is likely banking on Western fatigue, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, where economic pressures or political changes could lead to reduced support for Ukraine. There's also an attempt to exploit divisions within NATO and the EU, using the conflict to weaken Western unity. Sanctions relief, even if partial, and recognition of certain territorial gains might be part of this strategy to negotiate from a position of strength.

Psychological Warfare

By prolonging the conflict, Putin aims to demoralize both Ukrainian society and its international supporters, hoping this will lead to concessions. This includes cyber operations, disinformation campaigns, and the strategic use of energy resources as leverage against European nations.

Conclusion

The overarching goal appears to be securing a position where Russia can dictate terms, either through a direct military victory or by forcing Ukraine into a position where it must negotiate from weakness, potentially leading to some form of territorial or political concessions. However, the effectiveness and sustainability of this strategy are subjects of debate, given the resilience of Ukrainian forces, continued Western support, and the economic toll on Russia itself.