Update on political unrest in Congo

Introduction

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to face significant political unrest and armed conflict, particularly in its eastern regions. Here’s an update on the current situation:

M23 Rebel Activity

The March 23 Movement (M23), a primarily Tutsi rebel group, has intensified its operations in eastern DRC

On January 3, 2025, fierce battles erupted between M23 rebels and DRC army soldiers in the Masisi territory of North Kivu.

M23 has made significant territorial gains, including cutting off the last remaining overland supply route to Goma in February 2024 and seizing Rubaya, a key mining town, in May 2024.

The conflict has displaced approximately 1.5 million people, according to the International Organization for Migration.

Government Response and International Involvement

The DRC government, supported by various actors, is attempting to counter M23’s advances:

Congolese troops (FARDC) are fighting alongside Wazalendo militias against M23.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) has deployed troops to support UN stabilization forces.

The United States has condemned Rwanda for its alleged support of M23 and demanded the withdrawal of Rwandan military personnel and surface-to-air missiles from DRC.

Humanitarian Crisis

The ongoing conflict has led to a severe humanitarian crisis:

Over two million people have been displaced, and hundreds killed in the clashes between M23 rebels and Congolese troops.

The situation has strained resources needed to support around 800,000 internally displaced people in the region and a further 2.5 million displaced in the larger North Kivu province.

Political Tensions

The conflict has heightened tensions between DRC and neighboring countries:

DRC President Felix Tshisekedi has accused the Rwandan government of backing M23 to destabilize the country.

Rwanda describes the situation in eastern DRC as a national security threat and has vowed to defend itself.

International Sanctions

In response to the ongoing instability, the U.S. Treasury Department has imposed sanctions on key actors:

The Congo River Alliance (Alliance Fleuve Congo - AFC), a coalition of rebel groups including M23, has been sanctioned for seeking to overthrow the DRC government.

Bertrand Bisimwa, the president of M23, and other individuals associated with AFC have also been targeted by sanctions.

Outlook for 2025

The conflict is expected to persist and potentially escalate:

Conflict event rates are projected to grow by 15% in early 2025, with an estimated 20,000 reported fatalities per month.

Conclusion

Throughout 2025, violence levels are expected to remain very high relative to recent historical norms, with a likely annual increase of 20%.

The situation remains volatile, with ongoing efforts for dialogue and peacekeeping competing against the escalating violence and humanitarian crisis.