ISIS activists in Belgium - current and future risks?
Introduction
Terrorist activities in Belgium have evolved significantly over the past few decades, with the threat landscape shifting and adapting to various geopolitical and social factors. Here’s an overview of how terrorism has evolved in Belgium and the current and future risks involved:
Evolution of Terrorist Activities in Belgium
1980s
Far-left and Middle East-related Terrorism
In the 1980s, Belgium experienced a series of terrorist attacks primarily from far-left groups and those related to Middle Eastern politics. The Communist Combatant Cells (CCC) carried out several bombings, including attacks on NATO facilities and business targets.
1990s-2000s
Rise of Islamist Extremism
The late 1990s and early 2000s saw a shift towards Islamist extremism, with Belgium becoming a base for some terrorist networks operating in Europe.
2010s
ISIS-inspired Attacks
The 2010s marked a significant escalation in Islamist terrorist activities:
2014: Jewish Museum of Belgium shooting, directed by ISIS.
2016: Brussels bombings, the deadliest attack in Belgium since World War II, killing 32 civilians.
Several other ISIS-inspired lone-wolf attacks occurred throughout this period.
Recent Years: Diverse Threats
While Islamist extremism remains a primary concern, Belgium has also seen:
Far-right extremism gaining traction.
Continued threat from lone-wolf actors.
Potential for state-sponsored terrorism.
Current and Future Risks
Ongoing Islamist Threat
Belgium maintains a terror threat level of 3 out of 4, indicating a “serious” threat. The country remains vulnerable to attacks from ISIS-inspired individuals or cells.
Homegrown Radicalization
Areas like Molenbeek in Brussels continue to be of concern for potential radicalization. Socioeconomic issues, lack of integration, and online radicalization contribute to this risk.
Returning Foreign Fighters
The potential return of Belgian citizens who fought for ISIS in Syria and Iraq poses a significant security challenge.
Prison Radicalization
Belgian prisons have been identified as potential breeding grounds for radicalization, necessitating specialized programs and vigilance.
Far-right Extremism
There’s a growing concern about the rise of far-right extremism and its potential for violence.
Technological Advancements
The use of technology by terrorist groups for recruitment, planning, and execution of attacks is an evolving threat.
Geopolitical Tensions
Global events, such as conflicts in the Middle East, can potentially trigger terrorist activities or inspire lone-wolf attacks.
Cyber Terrorism
As Belgium hosts important international institutions, the risk of cyber-attacks targeting critical infrastructure remains high.
To address these evolving threats, Belgium has implemented a multi-faceted approach, including:
Strengthening legal frameworks and security measures.
Enhancing intelligence sharing and cooperation with international partners.
Implementing deradicalization and prevention programs.
Improving border controls and monitoring of potential threats.
Conclusion
As we move further into 2025, Belgium will need to remain vigilant and adaptive in its counter-terrorism strategies to address the complex and evolving nature of terrorist threats.
