How China could complicate Trump's Middle East plans

Introduction

China’s growing influence in the Middle East could significantly complicate Donald Trump’s calculus for the region during his second term as president. As Trump has taken office in 2025, he faces a geopolitical landscape that has evolved considerably since his first term, with China playing an increasingly prominent role. No doubt Saudi’s plan to invest $600 billion in US next four years but that to build Saudi made Defence parts do they can be less dependent on US. They may propose to buy new Defence equipment with edge technology. There has been a ban on sake of arms to Saudi but that threat is gone as they are not fighting houthis anymore.

Economic Influence

China has substantially expanded its economic ties with Middle Eastern countries, going beyond traditional energy partnerships. By 2022, bilateral trade between China and the Gulf states reached $315.8 billion. Beijing has been actively diversifying its economic engagement in the region, focusing on:

Infrastructure development

Digital economy initiatives

High-technology industries

New energy resources

This economic expansion directly challenges the United States’ traditional leadership role in the region. Trump’s administration will need to develop a robust economic engagement strategy to compete with China’s growing influence, particularly in emerging sectors that are crucial for the region’s economic diversification plans.

Diplomatic Initiatives

China has been positioning itself as a new type of regional peacemaker, actively engaging in diplomatic efforts:

Brokering the Saudi Arabia-Iran peace deal in March 2023

Facilitating the Beijing Declaration on Palestinian unity in July 2024

Proposing a “new security architecture” for the Middle East

These initiatives demonstrate China’s ambition to play a larger role in regional conflict resolution and peace-building. Trump’s administration will need to contend with China’s growing diplomatic clout, especially as Beijing leverages its relationships with various regional powers.

Energy Security

China remains heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, with Iranian oil exports to China increasing significantly in recent years. This energy relationship complicates Trump’s potential “maximum pressure” policy on Iran, as any destabilization of Iran would directly affect both Gulf states’ and China’s interests.

Regional Alliances

Trump’s push for expanding the Abraham Accords, particularly Saudi-Israeli normalization, could be complicated by China’s deepening relationships with regional powers. China’s strategic partnerships and its vision for a new regional security structure may conflict with U.S. efforts to reshape alliances in the Middle East.

Military and Security Cooperation

China has been expanding its security and defense cooperation with several Middle Eastern countries, including:

Joint development of unmanned aerial vehicles with the UAE

Ballistic missile production with Saudi Arabia

Military exercises and training programs with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar

This growing military engagement could potentially interfere with U.S. security arrangements in the region.

Technological Competition

China’s technological cooperation with Middle Eastern countries, especially in digital infrastructure and 5G networks, poses a challenge to U.S. interests. The Trump administration will need to offer competitive alternatives to Chinese technologies to maintain influence in this critical sector.

Conclusion

Trump formulates his Middle East strategy for his second term, he will need to navigate a complex landscape where China’s economic, diplomatic, and technological influence has grown significantly. This new reality will require a nuanced approach that balances traditional U.S. interests with the changing dynamics of the region, all while contending with China’s expanded role as a major player in Middle Eastern affairs.

As we all know US has neglected most nations diverting full attention to Isreal war. Hope it does not continue as they risk their own economy with high budget deficit of $1.8 trillion.