How might the Trump administration's AI policy influence international relations

Introduction

The Trump administration’s AI policy is likely to have significant implications for international relations, particularly in the following areas

Intensified Competition with China

The Trump administration is expected to take a more aggressive stance towards China in the AI domain:

There will likely be an expansion of export controls on AI technologies to China, building upon existing restrictions.

The administration may seek to close loopholes in current export control measures, such as addressing the black market for banned AI chips and restricting cloud-based access to computational power.

This intensified competition could lead to reduced bilateral engagement on managing AI risks, especially if Trump imposes broad tariffs on Chinese goods as proposed.

Shift in Global AI Governance Approach

Trump’s policies may alter the U.S. approach to international AI governance

The administration is likely to move away from Biden’s emphasis on building cooperative frameworks with allies for AI safety and ethics.

There may be less U.S. participation in global initiatives like the G7 Hiroshima Process on Generative AI or international AI safety summits.

This could potentially diminish U.S. influence in shaping global AI standards and ethical frameworks.

Emphasis on U.S. AI Dominance

The administration is expected to prioritize U.S. leadership in AI on the global stage

There will likely be a push to promote U.S. AI technology abroad and win global market share, potentially through a more transactional approach to foreign policy.

This could involve selling AI technologies, data centers, and even advanced chips to countries in regions like the Gulf, Southeast Asia, and Africa.

Impact on Alliances and Partnerships

Trump’s AI policies may affect relationships with allies and partners

Some NATO states and key partners like India may find themselves in a lower tier of access to U.S. AI technologies under new frameworks.

This could create tensions with allies who may view U.S. policies as attempts to entrench the dominance of U.S. tech firms.

Potential for Targeted Cooperation

Despite a generally more competitive stance, there may be opportunities for targeted international cooperation:

Trump’s deal-making approach could lead to unexpected agreements, even with rivals like China, particularly if concerns about extreme AI risks gain traction.

There may be continued support for carefully scoped multilateral efforts that serve U.S. interests, similar to the U.S. joining the G7’s Global Partnership on AI during Trump’s first term.

Shift in Development Sector Approach

The administration’s AI policy may impact international development:

Trump may be less inclined to work through international institutions like the United Nations for AI-related development projects.

Instead, there could be a preference for bilateral deals or carefully scoped multilateral efforts for targeted development projects.

Conclusion

Trump administration’s AI policy is likely to prioritize U.S. technological supremacy and economic interests, potentially at the expense of broader international cooperation on AI governance. This approach may lead to increased tensions with China and some allies, while also creating opportunities for transactional deals and targeted collaborations in the global AI landscape.