What is Putin thinking?

Introduction

Based on recent events and statements, Putin’s thinking appears to be focused on several key areas:

Escalation and Nuclear Posturing

Putin is signaling Russia’s readiness to use extreme measures in the Ukraine conflict

Deploying a hypersonic missile (Oreshnik) to send a message to the West about Russia’s capabilities

Revising Russia’s nuclear doctrine to lower the threshold for nuclear weapons use

Offering security guarantees to Belarus, including potential use of tactical nuclear weapons

Territorial Ambitions and Population Concerns

Putin’s strategy is deeply rooted in demographic concerns

Viewing Ukraine as part of a “single historical civilization” with Russia

Attempting to address Russia’s population decline through territorial expansion

Fearing that Russia’s shrinking population cannot adequately exploit its vast resources, particularly in the Arctic

Ideological Struggle Against the West

Putin frames the conflict as a broader struggle against Western influence:

Perceiving Western support for Ukraine as part of a conspiracy to weaken Russia

Positioning Russia as a defender of non-Western cultures against American “cultural imperialism”

Rejecting Western-style liberal policies, viewing them as threats to Russian identity

Military Strategy and Adaptation

The Russian military has evolved since the initial invasion:

Becoming a “learning organization” that has adapted to the challenges of the conflict

Increasing defense spending, with plans to allocate 32.5% of the federal budget to defense in 2025

Negotiation Stance

Putin maintains a hardline position on potential peace talks:

Insisting on negotiations based on “current realities” on the ground

Showing little interest in compromise, with some suggesting he aims for total Ukrainian capitulation

Domestic Control and International Relations

Putin is working to maintain his grip on power and reshape Russia’s global standing:

Capitalizing on the potential shift in U.S. leadership to reset U.S.-Russia relations

Continuing efforts to minimize the war’s social impacts on the Russian population

Conclusion

Putin’s thinking reflects a complex interplay of geopolitical ambitions, demographic concerns, and a desire to reassert Russia’s global influence, all while maintaining a readiness to escalate the conflict if deemed necessary.