Introduction

After capturing Hama, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied opposition forces are poised to make their next strategic move towards the city of Homs.

This advance represents a significant shift in the Syrian conflict and poses a serious threat to the Assad regime’s control.

The Advance Towards Homs

HTS and other rebel groups are now focusing their efforts on Homs for several reasons:

Strategic Location

Homs is situated approximately 3 miles from the rebels’ current position and lies along the crucial M5 highway connecting Aleppo to Damascus.

Military Significance

Capturing Homs would allow the opposition to split Assad’s territory, potentially isolating Damascus from the coastal regions.

Supply Lines

Taking Homs would disrupt a vital supply route used by Iran to transfer arms to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Challenges and Preparations

As the rebels prepare for this next phase, they face several challenges:

Consolidation of Gains

The opposition forces need to secure their hold on Hama province to maintain their strategic advantage.

Logistical Hurdles

Stretching their forces further south may expose them to counterattacks and supply issues.

Governance

The rebels must address the challenges of governing newly captured territories, including diverse populations in Aleppo and Hama.

Implications of the Homs Offensive

The potential capture of Homs could have far-reaching consequences:

Threat to Assad’s Rule

Success in Homs would represent the most significant challenge to Assad’s government in 13 years of civil war.

International Response

The advance may prompt increased involvement from Assad’s allies, particularly Russia and Iran.

Humanitarian Concern

Reports indicate that thousands of residents are already fleeing Homs in anticipation of the coming battle.

HTS leadership has expressed their ultimate goal of marching towards Damascus and dismantling the Assad administration.

The upcoming battle for Homs is being referred to as “the mother of all battles,” highlighting its potential to significantly influence Syria’s future.

Conclusion

As the situation evolves, the ability of HTS and allied forces to maintain their momentum and effectively govern captured territories will be crucial in determining the long-term impact of their offensive.