Introduction

As Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as U.S. president in January 2025, the prospects for engaging China and Russia in meaningful nuclear arms control talks appear challenging, with time running short to prevent a potential nuclear arms race.

Obstacles to Engagement

China’s Reluctance
China has consistently expressed disinterest in joining trilateral nuclear arms control negotiations with the U.S. and Russia. Beijing cites the significant disparity between its nuclear arsenal (estimated at 500 warheads) and those of the U.S. (5,044) and Russia (5,580) as a key reason for its reluctance. China maintains that substantial reductions in U.S. and Russian arsenals must occur before it will consider participating in such talks.

Russia’s Shifting Stance


While Russia previously advocated for multilateral nuclear arms control, it has recently stepped back from this position. Moscow now appears content to let Washington take the lead in attempting to bring China to the negotiating table, avoiding potential friction with its increasingly important strategic partner.

Expiring Treaties


The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between the U.S. and Russia is set to expire in February 2026. Without a replacement agreement, there will be no legally binding limits on the world’s two largest nuclear arsenals for the first time since the Cold War.

Trump’s Approach and Challenges

Trilateral Focus


Trump has consistently pushed for a trilateral arms control agreement involving the U.S., Russia, and China.

However, this approach faces significant hurdles given China’s firm opposition and Russia’s current stance.

Trump has started tariff wars with China, EU, Canada and rest of the world. How would he keep his ego aside and now work with all leaders as a team, knowing he is not a team player.

Transactional Diplomacy


Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy and arms control may complicate negotiations. His tendency to view arms control as a bargaining chip for other objectives could hinder progress on substantive agreements.

Time Constraints


With New START expiring in 2026 and the need to address growing nuclear risks, Trump faces a tight timeline to make meaningful progress on arms control during his second term.

Potential Strategies

Bilateral Engagement
Trump could pursue separate bilateral dialogues with Russia and China on strategic stability and arms control issues. This approach might be more palatable to Beijing and could lay groundwork for future trilateral discussions.

Confidence-Building Measures


Focusing on transparency and confidence-building measures with China, rather than immediate arms limitations, could be a more realistic near-term goal.

Informal Agreements


In the absence of formal treaties, Trump might pursue informal or political agreements to maintain some constraints on nuclear arsenals and prevent an unchecked arms race.

Conclusion

While the challenges are significant, engaging China and Russia on nuclear arms control remains crucial for global security. Trump’s ability to navigate these complex relationships and make progress on arms control could have profound implications for the future of nuclear stability and the prevention of nuclear conflict.