Introduction

Based on recent developments and ongoing diplomatic efforts, several nations have been involved in attempting to broker a deal between Syria and Turkey. However, the most promising mediator appears to be Iraq.

Iraq’s Mediation Efforts

Iraq, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' Al Sudani, has recently taken on a significant role in mediating between Syria and Turkey, driven by several factors:

Enhancing regional influence

Iraq aims to position itself as a key regional mediator.

Promoting stability

By fostering dialogue between its neighbors, Iraq hopes to reduce tensions in the region.

Baghdad’s mediation efforts face several challenges:

Lack of trust

There is a significant erosion of mutual trust between Syria and Turkey.

Preconditions

Both sides have set conflicting preconditions for negotiations.

Competing interests

Regional powers like Russia, Iran, and China have established stakes in Syria, complicating the situation.

Other Potential Mediators

While Iraq is currently at the forefront of mediation efforts, other nations and groups have also been involved in peace initiatives:

Russia

Has sponsored mediation efforts between Assad and Erdogan since 2022.

Iran and Turkey

Along with Russia, these countries have been part of the Astana Process, which has held multiple rounds of talks on Syria.

Kazakhstan

Has hosted several rounds of Syria peace talks, including the recent 22nd round in November 2024.

Challenges and Prospects

The situation remains complex, with several factors influencing the potential for a successful deal:

Regional competition

The entry of Turkey as a major player in Syria could disrupt the current balance of power.

U.S. involvement

The recent U.S. election and change in administration may impact the diplomatic landscape.

Refugee crisis

Turkey seeks a solution that would allow for the return of millions of Syrian refugees.

Despite these challenges, recent statements from Turkish President Erdogan expressing openness to inviting Syrian President Assad to Turkey suggest a potential thawing of relations.

Conclusion

Iraq currently appears to be the most active mediator, a successful deal may require the combined efforts of multiple regional and international actors.

The ongoing Astana Process and the involvement of major powers like Russia indicate that a multilateral approach might be necessary to broker a lasting agreement between Syria and Turkey.