Introduction

Poland’s new government, led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, faces several significant challenges as it seeks to restore democratic norms and strengthen Poland’s position within the European Union. The main challenges include:

Political Obstacles

Opposition from PiS

The previous ruling party, Law and Justice (PiS), continues to pose a significant challenge through large protests and political obstruction.

Presidential Vetoes

President Andrzej Duda, aligned with PiS, has frequently blocked the government’s legislative agenda by vetoing key initiatives.

Constitutional Tribunal

The court, filled with PiS-appointed judges, may obstruct the government’s reform efforts.

Economic Challenges

High Inflation: Poland is still grappling with increased inflation, recorded at 6.1% by the end of 2023.

Weak Economic Growth

The country experienced anaemic annual economic growth of 0.4% in 2023.

Rising Budget Deficit

The budget deficit is expected to increase from 2.5% to 4.5% of GDP.

EU Excessive Deficit Measures

Poland has been placed under EU excessive deficit measures, as it will exceed the 3% budget deficit ceiling in 2024 and 2025.

Rule of Law and Judicial Reforms

Restoring Judicial Independence: The government must address the issues that led to conflicts with EU institutions over the rule of law.

Unfreezing EU Funds: While progress has been made, the government needs to continue efforts to fully restore access to EU funds previously blocked due to rule of law concerns.

Social and Human Rights Issues

Abortion Rights: The coalition partners disagree on the approach to reforming Poland’s strict abortion laws, making it a contentious issue.

LGBT Rights: Addressing discrimination against LGBT people remains a challenge.

Environmental and Energy Transition

Moving Away from Coal: Poland needs to develop a vision for transitioning its economy away from fossil fuels, particularly its long-standing dependence on coal.

Demographic Challenges

Aging Population: Poland faces issues related to an aging population, which could impact future workforce size and economic growth.

Foreign Policy and Security

Support for Ukraine: Balancing strong support for Ukraine while addressing domestic concerns about Ukrainian competition in certain sectors.

EU Relations: Navigating Poland’s role within the EU, including potential changes to voting systems and climate policies.

Coalition Management

Maintaining Unity: The government must manage a diverse coalition with differing views on key issues like abortion and economic policies.

Conclusion

Addressing these challenges will require careful navigation of domestic politics, economic management, and diplomatic skill to restore Poland’s standing both internally and within the European Union.