PiS’s policies on abortion and women’s rights had a significant impact on voter behavior in Poland, particularly among women and younger voters:

Backlash Against Abortion Restrictions

• The October 2020 constitutional tribunal ruling that further tightened Poland’s already restrictive abortion law sparked nationwide protests, especially among younger Poles.

• This ruling invalidated termination of pregnancy in cases where the fetus was seriously malformed or suffered from an incurable disorder, which accounted for 98% of all known legal abortions in Poland in 2019.

• The backlash against these restrictions marked a turning point in PiS’s favor with the public, as opinion polls showed that voters generally opposed the strict overhaul of the law.

Mobilization of Women Voters

• Women, especially younger women, were galvanized by PiS’s anti-gender policies and restrictions on abortion rights.

• In the 2023 election, many women voted for leftist and centrist parties that made women’s rights and liberalized abortion laws a priority.

• The anger over abortion restrictions never dissipated, and protests became a regular occurrence, particularly when individual stories of women being denied access to abortion, and in some cases dying, came to the fore.

Impact on Youth Vote

• Young Poles participated in the 2023 election in record numbers, with a 69% turnout among voters under 29, compared to 46% in the 2019 elections.

• The ruling government’s outspoken stance on issues that matter to young Poles, such as LGBTQ+ rights and abortion, contributed to this increased youth turnout.

• Opposition parties capitalized on this by promising to make same-sex civil partnerships and the legalization of abortion up to 12 weeks a priority.

Erosion of PiS Support

• PiS’s support fell sharply from 43% in September 2020 to 34% in November following the controversial abortion ruling, and never really recovered.

• The party’s vote share dropped from 43.59% in 2019 to 35.38% in 2023, a decline of 8.21 percentage points.

• This decline was particularly notable in PiS’s heartland of villages and small towns, where increased turnout and changing demographics worked against the party.

Shift in Political Landscape

• The abortion issue exposed the first serious cracks in Tusk’s governing coalition, which contains lawmakers from across the political spectrum.

• While 60% of Poles believe abortion should be legal, only a minority supports abortion without restrictions, reflecting the complex landscape of views on abortion, faith, and Poland’s unique history.

These factors demonstrate how PiS’s policies on abortion and women’s rights significantly influenced voter behavior, contributing to the party’s electoral defeat and shaping the current political landscape in Poland.