How did PiS's controversial policies impact their voter base

Introduction

PiS’s controversial policies had a significant impact on their voter base, ultimately contributing to their loss of power in the 2023 Polish parliamentary elections:

Abortion Restrictions

The October 2020 constitutional tribunal ruling that further tightened Poland’s already restrictive abortion law had far-reaching consequences:

It sparked nationwide protests, particularly among younger Poles

Alienated voters even in PiS’s rural and small-town strongholds, with polls showing 48% of village inhabitants and 55% in small towns favoring wider access to abortion

Galvanized opposition, especially among women and youth voters

Economic Policies

While PiS’s redistributive policies initially boosted their support, several factors eroded their economic appeal:

High inflation (over 18% earlier in 2023) disproportionately affected fixed-income voters, many of whom were PiS supporters

Food prices increased by 24%, while housing, gas, and electricity costs rose by 22%

The success of some redistributive policies may have inadvertently created a small aspiring middle class less supportive of further redistribution

Rural and Agricultural Issues

PiS faced challenges in its traditional rural strongholds:

A proposed animal protection law in 2020 was perceived as threatening the livelihoods of farmers, a key element of PiS’s rural-agricultural core electorate

Controversies over grain imports from Ukraine affected support in agricultural areas

Social and Cultural Policies

PiS’s conservative stance on social issues had mixed effects:

Their opposition to LGBTQ+ rights mobilized younger voters against them

Emphasis on Christian traditions and conservative values maintained support among some voters but alienated others, particularly in urban areas

EU Relations and Governance

PiS’s approach to governance and international relations impacted voter perception:

Attacks on judicial independence and civil society freedoms raised concerns about democratic backsliding

Conflicts with the European Union over rule of law issues resonated negatively with pro-EU voters

Conclusion

These controversial policies and their consequences led to a significant drop in PiS’s vote share from 43.59% in 2019 to 35.38% in 2023, a decline of 8.21 percentage points. The impact was particularly notable in PiS’s heartland of villages and small towns, where increased turnout and changing demographics worked against the party, despite their efforts to mobilize rural voters through targeted funding initiatives.