Introduction

The prediction for Saudi-US relations under a new Trump regime is generally optimistic, with potential for strengthened ties but also some challenges:

Positive Outlook

Strengthened Strategic Relations

Saudi leaders have expressed eagerness to strengthen the longstanding strategic ties with the US under Trump’s leadership.

Economic and Defense Cooperation

Trump’s first term saw significant economic and defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, a trend likely to continue.

Regional Security Focus

Trump’s approach to Iran aligns closely with Saudi interests, potentially leading to stricter measures against Tehran.

Potential Developments

Military Deal

Trump might offer Saudi Arabia a closer military agreement, possibly including a bilateral defense treaty.

Arms Sales

Increased US arms sales to Saudi Arabia are likely, continuing the trend from Trump’s first term.

Abraham Accords

Trump may push for Saudi Arabia to sign an Abraham Accord with Israel, though this faces challenges.

Challenges and Concerns

Palestinian Issue

Saudi Arabia insists on recognition of a Palestinian state as part of any peace deal with Israel, which may conflict with Trump’s approach.

Business Interests

Trump’s personal business ties with Saudi Arabia raise ethical and legal concerns, potentially complicating diplomatic relations.

Regional Instability

Ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon will likely be top priorities, requiring careful diplomacy.

Key Factors

Personal Relationships

Trump’s close connections with Saudi leaders, particularly Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, could influence policy decisions.

Non-Interference Policy

Trump’s approach of not pressuring Gulf states on internal reforms is viewed positively by Saudi Arabia.

Balancing Act

Trump will need to balance strong ties with Saudi Arabia against his commitment to Israel, particularly in the context of regional conflicts.

Conclusion

In conclusion, while the overall prediction is positive for Saudi-US relations under a new Trump administration, the relationship will likely be characterized by a mix of strengthened cooperation and complex diplomatic challenges.