What is prediction of Saudi - US relationship under Trump new regime
Introduction
The prediction for Saudi-US relations under a new Trump regime is generally optimistic, with potential for strengthened ties but also some challenges:
Positive Outlook
Strengthened Strategic Relations
Saudi leaders have expressed eagerness to strengthen the longstanding strategic ties with the US under Trump’s leadership.
Economic and Defense Cooperation
Trump’s first term saw significant economic and defense agreements with Saudi Arabia, a trend likely to continue.
Regional Security Focus
Trump’s approach to Iran aligns closely with Saudi interests, potentially leading to stricter measures against Tehran.
Potential Developments
Military Deal
Trump might offer Saudi Arabia a closer military agreement, possibly including a bilateral defense treaty.
Arms Sales
Increased US arms sales to Saudi Arabia are likely, continuing the trend from Trump’s first term.
Abraham Accords
Trump may push for Saudi Arabia to sign an Abraham Accord with Israel, though this faces challenges.
Challenges and Concerns
Palestinian Issue
Saudi Arabia insists on recognition of a Palestinian state as part of any peace deal with Israel, which may conflict with Trump’s approach.
Business Interests
Trump’s personal business ties with Saudi Arabia raise ethical and legal concerns, potentially complicating diplomatic relations.
Regional Instability
Ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon will likely be top priorities, requiring careful diplomacy.
Key Factors
Personal Relationships
Trump’s close connections with Saudi leaders, particularly Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, could influence policy decisions.
Non-Interference Policy
Trump’s approach of not pressuring Gulf states on internal reforms is viewed positively by Saudi Arabia.
Balancing Act
Trump will need to balance strong ties with Saudi Arabia against his commitment to Israel, particularly in the context of regional conflicts.
Conclusion
In conclusion, while the overall prediction is positive for Saudi-US relations under a new Trump administration, the relationship will likely be characterized by a mix of strengthened cooperation and complex diplomatic challenges.
